Statistics / Football / Australia. Northern NSW NPL / Maitland vs Edgeworth Eagles

Maitland vs Edgeworth Eagles Statistics & Analysis

Maitland Maitland
Aug 30, 2026 - 06:00
2 1.25
1 1.35
xG Accuracy: 74%
Edgeworth Eagles Edgeworth Eagles
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Edgeworth Eagles Maitland ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 27, 2026 · 00:39 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5610692

Closing Odds 3.59
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Maitland win · Maitland 2–1 Edgeworth Eagles
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 9.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Maitland (1X2) 32.9 35.0 -2.1
Draw (1X2) 29.6 25.5 +4.0
Edgeworth Eagles (1X2) 37.6 39.5 -1.9
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 57.8 -9.6
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 42.2 +9.6
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 42.2%. The difference — about 9.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Maitland (1X2) 2.62 2.62 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.59 3.59 0.0
Edgeworth Eagles (1X2) 2.32 2.32 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.62 1.62 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.22 2.22 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Northern NSW NPL
  • Fixture: Maitland vs Edgeworth Eagles
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-30 06:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.6%
  • xG (showing): Maitland 1.25 — Edgeworth Eagles 1.35 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 41.9% · Probability edge: +9.9 pts · Est. EV: +24.3%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Northern NSW NPL Northern NSW NPL — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Broadmeadow Magic 22 15 4 3 49
2 Maitland 22 13 3 6 42
3 Weston Bears 22 12 5 5 41
4 Edgeworth Eagles 22 11 6 5 39
5 Belmont Swansea 22 10 5 7 35
6 Cooks Hill United 22 9 6 7 33
7 Valentine 22 7 5 10 26
8 Lambton Jaffas 22 7 4 11 25
9 Adamstown Rosebuds 22 6 6 10 24
10 Hamilton Olympic 22 5 6 11 21
11 Kahibah 22 6 2 14 20
12 Charlestown City Blues 22 4 2 16 14
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Broadmeadow Magic 22 59 23 +36 49
2 Weston Bears 22 48 33 +15 41
3 Belmont Swansea 22 47 44 +3 35
4 Cooks Hill United 22 43 36 +7 33
5 Edgeworth Eagles 22 41 31 +10 39
6 Maitland 22 40 32 +8 42
7 Hamilton Olympic 22 39 40 -1 21
8 Lambton Jaffas 22 38 33 +5 25
9 Kahibah 22 35 53 -18 20
10 Adamstown Rosebuds 22 34 45 -11 24
11 Charlestown City Blues 22 25 62 -37 14
12 Valentine 22 22 39 -17 26