JS Hercules vs Vaajakoski Statistics & Analysis

JS Hercules

Sep 26, 2026 - 14:00

2 1.24

2 1.36

xG Accuracy: 68%

Vaajakoski

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Vaajakoski Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 02:10 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10106865

Closing Odds 3.8

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Draw · JS Hercules 2–2 Vaajakoski

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Draw (1X2) by about 5.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
JS Hercules (1X2)	32.4	37.0	-4.6
Draw (1X2)	29.6	23.8	+5.8
Vaajakoski (1X2)	38.0	39.2	-1.2

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 29.6% on Draw (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 23.8%. The difference — about 5.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE5)
JS Hercules (1X2)	2.45	2.45
Draw (1X2)	3.8	3.8
Vaajakoski (1X2)	2.31	2.31

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Kakkonen - Lohko C
Fixture: JS Hercules vs Vaajakoski
Kickoff: 2026-09-26 14:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 38.0%
xG (showing): JS Hercules 1.24 — Vaajakoski 1.36 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 26.2% · Probability edge: +25.6 pts · Est. EV: +81.3%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Kakkonen - Lohko C — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Huima / Urho	18	11	3	4	36
2	GBK	18	10	2	6	32
3	JBK	18	10	1	7	31
4	VPS II	18	7	4	7	25
5	Jaro 2	18	8	1	9	25
6	Kraft	18	7	2	9	23
7	TP-47	18	6	5	7	23
8	Vaajakoski	18	6	3	9	21
9	JS Hercules	18	6	3	9	21
10	SJK-juniorit	18	5	4	9	19

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Huima / Urho	18	50	26	+24	36
2	Kraft	18	50	45	+5	23
3	VPS II	18	47	36	+11	25
4	GBK	18	43	33	+10	32
5	JBK	18	37	24	+13	31
6	Vaajakoski	18	34	44	-10	21
7	Jaro 2	18	33	54	-21	25
8	JS Hercules	18	31	42	-11	21
9	TP-47	18	28	35	-7	23
10	SJK-juniorit	18	27	41	-14	19