Statistics / Football / Finland. Kakkonen - Lohko C / JS Hercules vs SJK-juniorit

JS Hercules vs SJK-juniorit Statistics & Analysis

JS Hercules JS Hercules
Sep 19, 2026 - 11:00
3 1.18
5 1.42
xG Accuracy: 23%
SJK-juniorit SJK-juniorit
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (8 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 SJK-juniorit SJK-juniorit ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 3-5 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 01:06 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8661402

Closing Odds 4.29
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result SJK-juniorit win · JS Hercules 3–5 SJK-juniorit
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Draw (1X2) by about 8.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
JS Hercules (1X2) 29.6 32.5 -2.9
Draw (1X2) 29.4 21.4 +8.0
SJK-juniorit (1X2) 41.0 46.1 -5.1
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 29.4% on Draw (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 21.4%. The difference — about 8.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
JS Hercules (1X2) 2.82 2.82 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.29 4.29 0.0
SJK-juniorit (1X2) 1.99 1.99 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Kakkonen - Lohko C
  • Fixture: JS Hercules vs SJK-juniorit
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-19 11:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 29.6% · Draw 29.4% · Away 41.0%
  • xG (showing): JS Hercules 1.18 — SJK-juniorit 1.42 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 23.4% · Probability edge: +28.4 pts · Est. EV: +115.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Kakkonen - Lohko C Kakkonen - Lohko C — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Huima / Urho 18 11 3 4 36
2 GBK 18 10 2 6 32
3 JBK 18 10 1 7 31
4 VPS II 18 7 4 7 25
5 Jaro 2 18 8 1 9 25
6 Kraft 18 7 2 9 23
7 TP-47 18 6 5 7 23
8 Vaajakoski 18 6 3 9 21
9 JS Hercules 18 6 3 9 21
10 SJK-juniorit 18 5 4 9 19
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Huima / Urho 18 50 26 +24 36
2 Kraft 18 50 45 +5 23
3 VPS II 18 47 36 +11 25
4 GBK 18 43 33 +10 32
5 JBK 18 37 24 +13 31
6 Vaajakoski 18 34 44 -10 21
7 Jaro 2 18 33 54 -21 25
8 JS Hercules 18 31 42 -11 21
9 TP-47 18 28 35 -7 23
10 SJK-juniorit 18 27 41 -14 19
Kakkonen - Lohko C Finland. Kakkonen - Lohko C Predictions