Jaro 2 vs Huima / Urho Statistics & Analysis

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Jaro 2

Sep 12, 2026 - 09:00

0 1.32

6 1.28

xG Accuracy: 19%

Huima / Urho

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
1X2 Jaro 2 Huima / Urho ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-6 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 00:49 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7418973

Closing Odds 1.27

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Huima / Urho win · Jaro 2 0–6 Huima / Urho

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Jaro 2 (1X2), Draw (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Jaro 2 (1X2) by about 18.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Jaro 2 (1X2)	36.1	17.8	+18.3
Draw (1X2)	29.7	11.5	+18.2
Huima / Urho (1X2)	34.2	70.7	-36.4

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 36.1% on Jaro 2 (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 17.8%. The difference — about 18.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Jaro 2 (1X2)	5.04	5.04
Draw (1X2)	7.8	7.8
Huima / Urho (1X2)	1.27	1.27

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Jaro 2; market prices Huima / Urho instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

Model: Jaro 2 1.32 xG vs Huima / Urho 1.28 → Jaro 2 36.1%
Market: Huima / Urho ~17.8% implied
Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS No (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Kakkonen - Lohko C — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Huima / Urho	18	11	3	4	36
2	GBK	18	10	2	6	32
3	JBK	18	10	1	7	31
4	VPS II	18	7	4	7	25
5	Jaro 2	18	8	1	9	25
6	Kraft	18	7	2	9	23
7	TP-47	18	6	5	7	23
8	Vaajakoski	18	6	3	9	21
9	JS Hercules	18	6	3	9	21
10	SJK-juniorit	18	5	4	9	19

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Huima / Urho	18	50	26	+24	36
2	Kraft	18	50	45	+5	23
3	VPS II	18	47	36	+11	25
4	GBK	18	43	33	+10	32
5	JBK	18	37	24	+13	31
6	Vaajakoski	18	34	44	-10	21
7	Jaro 2	18	33	54	-21	25
8	JS Hercules	18	31	42	-11	21
9	TP-47	18	28	35	-7	23
10	SJK-juniorit	18	27	41	-14	19