Statistics / Football / Colombia. Copa Colombia / Deportivo Pasto vs Independiente Medellin

Deportivo Pasto vs Independiente Medellin Statistics & Analysis

Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto
Sep 10, 2026 - 01:10
1 1.22
4 1.38
xG Accuracy: 46%
Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-4 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 04, 2026 · 01:23 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6847137

Closing Odds 3.7
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Independiente Medellin win · Deportivo Pasto 1–4 Independiente Medellin
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Deportivo Pasto (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Deportivo Pasto (1X2) by about 6.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Deportivo Pasto (1X2) 31.5 25.1 +6.4
Draw (1X2) 29.5 30.1 -0.6
Independiente Medellin (1X2) 39.0 44.8 -5.8
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 44.2 +4.0
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 55.8 -4.0
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 31.5% on Deportivo Pasto (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 25.1%. The difference — about 6.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Deportivo Pasto (1X2) 3.7 3.7 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.08 3.08 0.0
Independiente Medellin (1X2) 2.07 2.07 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.13 2.13 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.69 1.69 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Copa Colombia
  • Fixture: Deportivo Pasto vs Independiente Medellin
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-10 01:10:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 39.0%
  • xG (showing): Deportivo Pasto 1.22 — Independiente Medellin 1.38 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 44.5% · Probability edge: +3.7 pts · Est. EV: +4.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Copa Colombia Copa Colombia — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Deportivo Cali 4 4 0 0 12
2 Alianza Petrolera 4 2 1 1 7
3 Popayan 4 2 1 1 7
4 Bucaramanga 4 1 0 3 3
5 Real Santander 4 0 0 4 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Deportivo Cali 4 10 2 +8 12
2 Bucaramanga 4 8 7 +1 3
3 Popayan 4 8 8 0 7
4 Alianza Petrolera 4 6 3 +3 7
5 Real Santander 4 1 13 -12 0
Copa Colombia Colombia. Copa Colombia Predictions