Vega Real vs Jarabacoa Statistics & Analysis

Vega Real

Sep 23, 2026 - 22:00

3 1.44

1 1.16

xG Accuracy: 62%

Jarabacoa

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Vega Real Vega Real ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 17, 2026 · 01:49 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-9168859

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Vega Real win · Vega Real 3–1 Jarabacoa

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Liga Mayor
Fixture: Vega Real vs Jarabacoa
Kickoff: 2026-09-23 22:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.9% · Draw 29.3% · Away 28.8%
xG (showing): Vega Real 1.44 — Jarabacoa 1.16 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.0% · No 46.0%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.0% · No 46.0%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga Mayor — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Salcedo	6	4	2	0	14
2	Delfines Del Este	7	4	2	1	14
3	Cibao	7	3	2	2	11
4	Moca	7	3	4	0	11
5	Vega Real	7	3	1	3	10
6	Universidad O&M	7	3	2	2	9
7	Jarabacoa	7	1	0	6	0
8	Atlántico	8	0	1	7

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Salcedo	6	14	3	+11	14
2	Vega Real	7	12	8	+4	10
3	Universidad O&M	7	11	7	+4	9
4	Cibao	7	10	6	+4	11
5	Delfines Del Este	7	7	3	+4	14
6	Moca	7	7	4	+3	11
7	Atlántico	8	6	26	-20
8	Jarabacoa	7	3	13	-10	0