Moca vs Cibao Statistics & Analysis

Moca

Sep 13, 2026 - 22:00

2 1.18

1 1.42

xG Accuracy: 71%

Cibao

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Cibao Moca ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 2-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 02:27 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7461764

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Moca win · Moca 2–1 Cibao

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Liga Mayor
Fixture: Moca vs Cibao
Kickoff: 2026-09-13 22:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 29.6% · Draw 29.4% · Away 41.0%
xG (showing): Moca 1.18 — Cibao 1.42 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
Model: 48.2% · Implied: 38.6% · Probability edge: +9.6 pts · Est. EV: +19.1%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga Mayor — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Salcedo	6	4	2	0	14
2	Delfines Del Este	7	4	2	1	14
3	Cibao	7	3	2	2	11
4	Moca	7	3	4	0	11
5	Vega Real	7	3	1	3	10
6	Universidad O&M	7	3	2	2	9
7	Jarabacoa	7	1	0	6	0
8	Atlántico	8	0	1	7

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Salcedo	6	14	3	+11	14
2	Vega Real	7	12	8	+4	10
3	Universidad O&M	7	11	7	+4	9
4	Cibao	7	10	6	+4	11
5	Delfines Del Este	7	7	3	+4	14
6	Moca	7	7	4	+3	11
7	Atlántico	8	6	26	-20
8	Jarabacoa	7	3	13	-10	0