Statistics / Football / Peru. Liga Women / Sporting Cristal W vs Alianza Lima W

Sporting Cristal W vs Alianza Lima W Statistics & Analysis

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Sporting Cristal W
Sep 20, 2026 - 20:15
0 1.32
2 1.28
xG Accuracy: 57%
Alianza Lima W Alianza Lima W
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Sporting Cristal W Alianza Lima W ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 02:52 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8698834

Closing Odds 1.83
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Alianza Lima W win · Sporting Cristal W 0–2 Alianza Lima W
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Sporting Cristal W (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 11.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Sporting Cristal W (1X2) 36.1 26.1 +10.0
Draw (1X2) 29.7 25.6 +4.0
Alianza Lima W (1X2) 34.2 48.3 -14.1
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 59.9 -11.7
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 40.1 +11.7
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 40.1%. The difference — about 11.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Sporting Cristal W (1X2) 3.39 3.39 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.45 3.45 0.0
Alianza Lima W (1X2) 1.83 1.83 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.52 1.52 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.27 2.27 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Liga Women
  • Fixture: Sporting Cristal W vs Alianza Lima W
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-20 20:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Sporting Cristal W 1.32 — Alianza Lima W 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 40.2% · Probability edge: +11.6 pts · Est. EV: +23.3%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Liga Women Liga Women — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 U. de Deportes W 10 9 1 0 28
2 Atl. Andahuaylas W 10 8 1 1 25
3 Sporting Cristal W 10 7 0 3 21
4 Alianza Lima W 10 6 2 2 20
5 Yanapuma W 10 5 1 4 16
6 FBC Melgar W 10 4 2 4 14
7 Flamengo FBC W 10 3 2 5 11
8 Defensores W 10 2 1 7 7
9 UNSAAC W 10 1 3 6 6
10 Killas W 10 1 2 7 5
11 Carlos Mannucci W 10 1 1 8 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 U. de Deportes W 10 55 4 +51 28
2 Sporting Cristal W 10 30 9 +21 21
3 Alianza Lima W 10 26 7 +19 20
4 Flamengo FBC W 10 16 21 -5 11
5 FBC Melgar W 10 15 14 +1 14
6 Yanapuma W 10 15 21 -6 16
7 Atl. Andahuaylas W 10 14 8 +6 25
8 Killas W 10 14 26 -12 5
9 Defensores W 10 11 29 -18 7
10 UNSAAC W 10 7 25 -18 6
11 Carlos Mannucci W 10 4 43 -39 4