Modbury Jets vs Adelaide Olympic Statistics & Analysis

Modbury Jets

Sep 05, 2026 - 05:30

6 1.35

0 1.25

xG Accuracy: 20%

Adelaide Olympic

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Modbury Jets Modbury Jets ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 6-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 30, 2026 · 00:57 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6121029

Closing Odds 1.65

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Modbury Jets win · Modbury Jets 6–0 Adelaide Olympic

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Adelaide Olympic (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Adelaide Olympic (1X2) by about 10.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Modbury Jets (1X2)	37.6	54.8	-17.2
Draw (1X2)	29.6	22.9	+6.6
Adelaide Olympic (1X2)	32.9	22.3	+10.6
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	55.8	-7.6
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	44.2	+7.6

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 32.9% on Adelaide Olympic (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 22.3%. The difference — about 10.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Modbury Jets (1X2)	1.65	1.65
Draw (1X2)	3.94	3.94
Adelaide Olympic (1X2)	4.05	4.05
Over 2.5 goals	1.67	1.67
Under 2.5 goals	2.11	2.11

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: South Australia State League 1
Fixture: Modbury Jets vs Adelaide Olympic
Kickoff: 2026-09-05 05:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.9%
xG (showing): Modbury Jets 1.35 — Adelaide Olympic 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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South Australia State League 1 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Adelaide Raiders	22	15	2	5	47
2	Modbury Jets	22	13	5	4	44
3	Adelaide Olympic	22	14	1	7	43
4	Fulham United	22	11	4	7	37
5	Adelaide Blue Eagles	22	10	6	6	36
6	Adelaide Victory	22	11	3	8	36
7	Cumberland United	22	11	1	10	34
8	The Cove	22	7	5	10	26
9	Eastern United	22	6	4	12	22
10	Adelaide Cobras	22	6	2	14	20
11	Salisbury United	22	5	2	15	17
12	South Adelaide Panthers	22	4	3	15	15

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Adelaide Raiders	22	56	26	+30	47
2	Modbury Jets	22	46	20	+26	44
3	Adelaide Olympic	22	42	25	+17	43
4	Fulham United	22	42	31	+11	37
5	Adelaide Victory	22	40	34	+6	36
6	Cumberland United	22	36	28	+8	34
7	Adelaide Blue Eagles	22	36	29	+7	36
8	The Cove	22	29	36	-7	26
9	Salisbury United	22	28	48	-20	17
10	South Adelaide Panthers	22	26	62	-36	15
11	Eastern United	22	25	44	-19	22
12	Adelaide Cobras	22	22	45	-23	20