Statistics / Football / Brazil. Brasileiro Women / Gremio W vs São Paulo W

Gremio W vs São Paulo W Statistics & Analysis

Gremio W Gremio W
Aug 29, 2026 - 19:30
0 1.19
0 1.41
xG Accuracy: 49%
São Paulo W São Paulo W
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 São Paulo W Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-0 0-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 26, 2026 · 01:24 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5497802

Closing Odds 2.81
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Gremio W 0–0 São Paulo W
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 0.8 percentage points on São Paulo W (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 5.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Gremio W (1X2) 30.1 33.0 -2.9
Draw (1X2) 29.4 28.6 +0.8
São Paulo W (1X2) 40.5 38.3 +2.1
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 42.3 +5.9
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 57.7 -5.9
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 48.2% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 42.3%. The difference — about 5.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Gremio W (1X2) 2.73 2.81 -0.5
Draw (1X2) 3.17 3.24 -0.3
São Paulo W (1X2) 2.44 2.42 +0.8
Over 2.5 goals 2.25 2.24 +0.6
Under 2.5 goals 1.61 1.64 -0.6

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Brasileiro Women
  • Fixture: Gremio W vs São Paulo W
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-29 19:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 30.1% · Draw 29.4% · Away 40.5%
  • xG (showing): Gremio W 1.19 — São Paulo W 1.41 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 42.8% · Probability edge: +5.4 pts · Est. EV: +8.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Brasileiro Women Brasileiro Women — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 São Paulo W 17 13 2 2 41
2 Corinthians W 17 12 2 3 38
3 Palmeiras W 17 10 6 1 36
4 Ferroviaria W 17 8 7 2 31
5 Flamengo W 17 8 6 3 30
6 Bahia W 17 8 5 4 29
7 Cruzeiro W 17 7 7 3 28
8 Gremio W 17 8 3 6 27
9 Internacional RS W 17 8 3 6 27
10 RB Bragantino W 17 8 2 7 26
11 Fluminense W 17 7 5 5 26
12 Santos W 17 6 5 6 23
13 Atlético Mineiro W 17 4 4 9 16
14 Mixto W 17 2 6 9 12
15 Juventude W 17 2 5 10 11
16 America Mineiro W 17 1 4 12 7
17 Vitória BA W 17 1 4 12 7
18 Botafogo W 17 1 2 14 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Corinthians W 17 42 18 +24 38
2 Palmeiras W 17 32 11 +21 36
3 São Paulo W 17 31 11 +20 41
4 Cruzeiro W 17 30 19 +11 28
5 Bahia W 17 30 21 +9 29
6 RB Bragantino W 17 30 26 +4 26
7 Flamengo W 17 29 20 +9 30
8 Ferroviaria W 17 23 14 +9 31
9 Gremio W 17 23 16 +7 27
10 Fluminense W 17 23 19 +4 26
11 Santos W 17 22 23 -1 23
12 Internacional RS W 17 21 17 +4 27
13 Atlético Mineiro W 17 17 25 -8 16
14 Vitória BA W 17 15 45 -30 7
15 Mixto W 17 10 27 -17 12
16 Botafogo W 17 10 38 -28 5
17 Juventude W 17 9 22 -13 11
18 America Mineiro W 17 9 34 -25 7
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