Statistics / Football / Russia. Second League - Group 4 / Nosta vs Orenburg II

Nosta vs Orenburg II Statistics & Analysis

Nosta Nosta
Sep 27, 2026 - 11:00
2 1.12
0 1.48
xG Accuracy: 52%
Orenburg II Orenburg II
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Orenburg II Nosta ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 01:09 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10085892

Closing Odds 2.68
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Nosta win · Nosta 2–0 Orenburg II
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Orenburg II (1X2), Under 2.5 goals, BTTS No meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Orenburg II (1X2) by about 3.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Nosta (1X2) 27.1 33.2 -6.2
Draw (1X2) 29.1 26.1 +3.0
Orenburg II (1X2) 43.9 40.7 +3.2
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 51.2 -3.0
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 48.8 +3.0
BTTS Yes 53.6 55.4 -1.8
BTTS No 46.4 44.6 +1.8
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 43.9% on Orenburg II (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 40.7%. The difference — about 3.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Marathonbet

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Nosta (1X2) 2.68 2.68 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.42 3.42 0.0
Orenburg II (1X2) 2.19 2.19 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.79 1.79 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.88 1.88 0.0
BTTS Yes 1.64 1.64 0.0
BTTS No 2.04 2.04 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Second League - Group 4
  • Fixture: Nosta vs Orenburg II
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-27 11:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 27.1% · Draw 29.1% · Away 43.9%
  • xG (showing): Nosta 1.12 — Orenburg II 1.48 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.6% · No 46.4%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.6% · No 46.4%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.3%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Second League - Group 4 Second League - Group 4 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Khimik Dzerzhinsk 22 18 2 2 56
2 KDV 22 17 2 3 53
3 Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod 22 13 4 5 43
4 Akron II 22 10 2 10 32
5 Krylya Sovetov II 22 6 9 7 27
6 Dinamo Barnaul 22 7 5 10 26
7 Orenburg II 22 6 8 8 26
8 Izhevsk 22 5 8 9 23
9 Ural II 22 5 7 10 22
10 Rubin Kazan 2 22 4 8 10 20
11 Nosta 22 4 6 12 18
12 Chelyabinsk II 22 4 5 13 17
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Khimik Dzerzhinsk 22 57 16 +41 56
2 Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod 22 51 33 +18 43
3 Akron II 22 46 34 +12 32
4 KDV 22 40 20 +20 53
5 Ural II 22 34 44 -10 22
6 Orenburg II 22 31 35 -4 26
7 Dinamo Barnaul 22 31 50 -19 26
8 Izhevsk 22 30 32 -2 23
9 Krylya Sovetov II 22 25 26 -1 27
10 Rubin Kazan 2 22 25 35 -10 20
11 Nosta 22 20 48 -28 18
12 Chelyabinsk II 22 19 36 -17 17
Second League - Group 4 Russia. Second League - Group 4 Predictions