Statistics / Football / Australia. South Australia NPL / West Torrens Birkalla vs MetroStars

West Torrens Birkalla vs MetroStars Statistics & Analysis

West Torrens Birkalla West Torrens Birkalla
Sep 05, 2026 - 09:30
2 1.21
0 1.39
xG Accuracy: 55%
MetroStars MetroStars
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 MetroStars West Torrens Birkalla ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 30, 2026 · 01:07 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6124174

Closing Odds 2.46
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result West Torrens Birkalla win · West Torrens Birkalla 2–0 MetroStars
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 0.78 percentage points on West Torrens Birkalla (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 11.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
West Torrens Birkalla (1X2) 31.0 37.7 -6.7
Draw (1X2) 29.5 25.5 +3.9
MetroStars (1X2) 39.5 36.8 +2.7
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 59.5 -11.3
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 40.5 +11.3
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 40.5%. The difference — about 11.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
West Torrens Birkalla (1X2) 2.38 2.46 -0.8
Draw (1X2) 3.65 3.63 +0.5
MetroStars (1X2) 2.51 2.52 +0.3
Over 2.5 goals 1.56 1.58 -0.2
Under 2.5 goals 2.31 2.32 +0.2

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: South Australia NPL
  • Fixture: West Torrens Birkalla vs MetroStars
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-05 09:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 39.5%
  • xG (showing): West Torrens Birkalla 1.21 — MetroStars 1.39 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 40.9% · Probability edge: +10.9 pts · Est. EV: +21.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
South Australia NPL South Australia NPL — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Adelaide City 22 14 6 2 48
2 West Torrens Birkalla 22 14 3 5 45
3 MetroStars 22 13 5 4 44
4 Playford City Patriots 22 10 5 7 35
5 White City Woodville 22 10 3 9 33
6 Croydon Kings 22 8 6 8 30
7 Adelaide United II 22 7 8 7 29
8 Campbelltown City 22 8 5 9 29
9 Sturt Lions 22 8 3 11 27
10 West Adelaide 22 6 7 9 25
11 Adelaide Comets 22 5 5 12 20
12 Para Hills Knights 22 0 2 20 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 West Torrens Birkalla 22 54 29 +25 45
2 MetroStars 22 53 23 +30 44
3 Croydon Kings 22 46 41 +5 30
4 Adelaide City 22 44 16 +28 48
5 Playford City Patriots 22 42 31 +11 35
6 West Adelaide 22 40 44 -4 25
7 White City Woodville 22 35 30 +5 33
8 Campbelltown City 22 35 36 -1 29
9 Sturt Lions 22 35 36 -1 27
10 Adelaide United II 22 33 32 +1 29
11 Adelaide Comets 22 25 38 -13 20
12 Para Hills Knights 22 16 102 -86 2