Statistics / Football / Vietnam. V.League 1 / Hoang Anh Gia Lai vs Hai Phong

Hoang Anh Gia Lai vs Hai Phong Statistics & Analysis

Hoang Anh Gia Lai Hoang Anh Gia Lai
Sep 13, 2026 - 10:00
1 1.24
3 1.36
xG Accuracy: 60%
Hai Phong Hai Phong
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Hai Phong Hai Phong ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 01:02 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7424680

Closing Odds 3.04
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Hai Phong win · Hoang Anh Gia Lai 1–3 Hai Phong
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Hoang Anh Gia Lai (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Hoang Anh Gia Lai (1X2) by about 2.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Hoang Anh Gia Lai (1X2) 32.4 30.1 +2.2
Draw (1X2) 29.6 30.4 -0.8
Hai Phong (1X2) 38.0 39.5 -1.5
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 46.3 +1.9
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 53.7 -1.9
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 32.4% on Hoang Anh Gia Lai (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 30.1%. The difference — about 2.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Hoang Anh Gia Lai (1X2) 3.04 3.04 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.02 3.02 0.0
Hai Phong (1X2) 2.32 2.32 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.03 2.03 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.75 1.75 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: V.League 1
  • Fixture: Hoang Anh Gia Lai vs Hai Phong
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-13 10:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 38.0%
  • xG (showing): Hoang Anh Gia Lai 1.24 — Hai Phong 1.36 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
V.League 1 V.League 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Công An Nhân Dân 3 3 0 0 9
2 Phu Dong 2 2 0 0 6
3 Song Lam Nghe An 2 2 0 0 6
4 Da Nang 2 1 0 1 3
5 Nam Dinh 2 1 0 1 3
6 Ho Chi Minh City 2 1 0 1 3
7 Viettel 2 1 0 1 3
8 Thanh Hóa 2 1 0 1 3
9 Bắc Ninh 2 1 0 1 3
10 Hai Phong 2 1 0 1 3
11 Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh 2 1 0 1 3
12 Ha Noi 2 0 0 2 0
13 Hoang Anh Gia Lai 2 0 0 2 0
14 Bình Phước 3 0 0 3 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Công An Nhân Dân 3 6 0 +6 9
2 Phu Dong 2 6 2 +4 6
3 Song Lam Nghe An 2 5 1 +4 6
4 Da Nang 2 5 3 +2 3
5 Nam Dinh 2 4 3 +1 3
6 Thanh Hóa 2 4 4 0 3
7 Hai Phong 2 4 5 -1 3
8 Ho Chi Minh City 2 3 2 +1 3
9 Viettel 2 2 1 +1 3
10 Ha Noi 2 2 7 -5 0
11 Bắc Ninh 2 1 1 0 3
12 Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh 2 1 2 -1 3
13 Hoang Anh Gia Lai 2 1 7 -6 0
14 Bình Phước 3 0 6 -6 0