Statistics / Football / Vietnam. V.League 1 / Bắc Ninh vs Ho Chi Minh City

Bắc Ninh vs Ho Chi Minh City Statistics & Analysis

⚽
Bắc Ninh
Sep 11, 2026 - 11:00
1 1.40
0 1.20
xG Accuracy: 64%
Ho Chi Minh City Ho Chi Minh City
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Bắc Ninh Bắc Ninh ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 05, 2026 · 01:06 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7021698

Closing Odds 2.88
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Bắc Ninh win · Bắc Ninh 1–0 Ho Chi Minh City
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Bắc Ninh (1X2), Over 2.5 goals, BTTS Yes meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Bắc Ninh (1X2) by about 8.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Bắc Ninh (1X2) 40.0 31.5 +8.4
Draw (1X2) 29.5 30.3 -0.8
Ho Chi Minh City (1X2) 30.6 38.2 -7.6
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 41.9 +6.3
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 58.1 -6.3
BTTS Yes 54.3 48.5 +5.8
BTTS No 45.7 51.5 -5.8
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 40.0% on Bắc Ninh (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 31.5%. The difference — about 8.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Bet365

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Bắc Ninh (1X2) 2.88 2.88 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.0 3.0 0.0
Ho Chi Minh City (1X2) 2.38 2.38 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.25 2.25 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.62 1.62 0.0
BTTS Yes 1.91 1.91 0.0
BTTS No 1.8 1.8 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: V.League 1
  • Fixture: Bắc Ninh vs Ho Chi Minh City City
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-11 11:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 40.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 30.6%
  • xG (showing): Bắc Ninh 1.4 — Ho Chi Minh City City 1.2 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.3% · Implied: 48.0% · Probability edge: +6.3 pts · Est. EV: +12.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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V.League 1 V.League 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Công An Nhân Dân 3 3 0 0 9
2 Phu Dong 2 2 0 0 6
3 Song Lam Nghe An 2 2 0 0 6
4 Da Nang 2 1 0 1 3
5 Nam Dinh 2 1 0 1 3
6 Ho Chi Minh City 2 1 0 1 3
7 Viettel 2 1 0 1 3
8 Thanh Hóa 2 1 0 1 3
9 Bắc Ninh 2 1 0 1 3
10 Hai Phong 2 1 0 1 3
11 Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh 2 1 0 1 3
12 Ha Noi 2 0 0 2 0
13 Hoang Anh Gia Lai 2 0 0 2 0
14 Bình Phước 3 0 0 3 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Công An Nhân Dân 3 6 0 +6 9
2 Phu Dong 2 6 2 +4 6
3 Song Lam Nghe An 2 5 1 +4 6
4 Da Nang 2 5 3 +2 3
5 Nam Dinh 2 4 3 +1 3
6 Thanh Hóa 2 4 4 0 3
7 Hai Phong 2 4 5 -1 3
8 Ho Chi Minh City 2 3 2 +1 3
9 Viettel 2 2 1 +1 3
10 Ha Noi 2 2 7 -5 0
11 Bắc Ninh 2 1 1 0 3
12 Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh 2 1 2 -1 3
13 Hoang Anh Gia Lai 2 1 7 -6 0
14 Bình Phước 3 0 6 -6 0