Progresul Pecica vs Universitatea Alba Iulia Statistics & Analysis

Progresul Pecica

Sep 22, 2026 - 14:00

6 1.31

0 1.29

xG Accuracy: 19%

Universitatea Alba Iulia

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Progresul Pecica Progresul Pecica ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 6-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 16, 2026 · 02:31 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8988470

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Progresul Pecica win · Progresul Pecica 6–0 Universitatea Alba Iulia

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Liga III - Serie 7
Fixture: Progresul Pecica vs Universitatea Alba Iulia
Kickoff: 2026-09-22 14:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.7%
xG (showing): Progresul Pecica 1.31 — Universitatea Alba Iulia 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Liga III - Serie 7 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	CIL Blaj	5	5	0	0	15
2	Timişul Şag	5	3	1	1	10
3	Unirea Sântana	5	3	0	2	9
4	Unirea Alba Iulia	5	2	2	1	8
5	Cetate Deva	5	2	2	1	8
6	Progresul Pecica	5	2	1	2	7
7	Ghiroda şi Giarmata Vii	5	1	3	1	6
8	Viitorul Arad	5	1	3	1	6
9	Metalurgistul Cugir	5	1	2	2	5
10	Universitatea Alba Iulia	5	0	3	2	3
11	Poli Timisoara 2	5	1	0	4	3
12	Nera Bogodinţi	5	0	1	4	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Progresul Pecica	5	12	8	+4	7
2	CIL Blaj	5	11	4	+7	15
3	Unirea Sântana	5	9	3	+6	9
4	Cetate Deva	5	8	6	+2	8
5	Metalurgistul Cugir	5	8	8	0	5
6	Poli Timisoara 2	5	8	17	-9	3
7	Timişul Şag	5	7	4	+3	10
8	Unirea Alba Iulia	5	7	4	+3	8
9	Ghiroda şi Giarmata Vii	5	6	7	-1	6
10	Viitorul Arad	5	5	6	-1	6
11	Universitatea Alba Iulia	5	4	11	-7	3
12	Nera Bogodinţi	5	2	9	-7	1