Timişul Şag vs Progresul Pecica Statistics & Analysis

Timişul Şag

Sep 18, 2026 - 12:00

3 1.28

0 1.32

xG Accuracy: 43%

Progresul Pecica

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Progresul Pecica Timişul Şag ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 12, 2026 · 01:07 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8195831

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Timişul Şag win · Timişul Şag 3–0 Progresul Pecica

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Liga III - Serie 7
Fixture: Timişul Şag vs Progresul Pecica
Kickoff: 2026-09-18 12:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Away 36.1%
xG (showing): Timişul Şag 1.28 — Progresul Pecica 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 24, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Liga III - Serie 7 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	CIL Blaj	3	3	0	0	9
2	Cetate Deva	3	2	1	0	7
3	Timişul Şag	3	2	1	0	7
4	Viitorul Arad	3	1	2	0	5
5	Progresul Pecica	3	1	1	1	4
6	Unirea Alba Iulia	3	1	1	1	4
7	Unirea Sântana	3	1	0	2	3
8	Poli Timisoara 2	3	1	0	2	3
9	Universitatea Alba Iulia	3	0	2	1	2
10	Ghiroda şi Giarmata Vii	3	0	2	1	2
11	Metalurgistul Cugir	3	0	1	2	1
12	Nera Bogodinţi	3	0	1	2	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Cetate Deva	3	8	3	+5	7
2	CIL Blaj	3	6	2	+4	9
3	Progresul Pecica	3	6	5	+1	4
4	Poli Timisoara 2	3	6	11	-5	3
5	Timişul Şag	3	4	1	+3	7
6	Universitatea Alba Iulia	3	4	5	-1	2
7	Viitorul Arad	3	3	2	+1	5
8	Ghiroda şi Giarmata Vii	3	3	5	-2	2
9	Metalurgistul Cugir	3	3	6	-3	1
10	Unirea Alba Iulia	3	2	2	0	4
11	Unirea Sântana	3	2	2	0	3
12	Nera Bogodinţi	3	1	4	-3	1