Predictions / Football / Romania. Liga III - Serie 7 / Cetate Deva vs Progresul Pecica

Prediction Audit: Cetate Deva vs Progresul Pecica Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Cetate Deva Cetate Deva
Sep 11, 2026 - 14:00
3 1.32
1 1.28
xG Accuracy: 58%
Progresul Pecica Progresul Pecica

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade Not available

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Cetate Deva Cetate Deva ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 11, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  2. FT Full-time result Cetate Deva win · 3–1

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: No prediction record
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Prediction Time: Sep 05, 2026 · 01:23 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7027186

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Cetate Deva win · Cetate Deva 3–1 Progresul Pecica
Prediction No prediction record
Decision Grade Not assessed

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Liga III - Serie 7
  • Fixture: Cetate Deva vs Progresul Pecica
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-11 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Cetate Deva 1.32 — Progresul Pecica 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Cautious / Wait

Outcome: —

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

November 12, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga III - Serie 7 Liga III - Serie 7 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Unirea Alba Iulia 11 8 2 1 26
2 Timişul Şag 11 7 2 2 23
3 Viitorul Arad 11 6 3 2 21
4 Ghiroda şi Giarmata Vii 11 5 4 2 19
5 CIL Blaj 11 5 4 2 19
6 Cetate Deva 11 5 3 3 18
7 Unirea Sântana 11 5 2 4 17
8 Metalurgistul Cugir 11 3 4 4 13
9 Progresul Pecica 11 4 1 6 13
10 Poli Timisoara 2 11 2 1 8 7
11 Universitatea Alba Iulia 11 0 4 7 4
12 Nera Bogodinţi 11 0 2 9 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Unirea Alba Iulia 11 32 5 +27 26
2 Cetate Deva 11 24 19 +5 18
3 CIL Blaj 11 21 18 +3 19
4 Ghiroda şi Giarmata Vii 11 20 14 +6 19
5 Viitorul Arad 11 19 14 +5 21
6 Progresul Pecica 11 18 25 -7 13
7 Timişul Şag 11 17 7 +10 23
8 Unirea Sântana 11 15 9 +6 17
9 Metalurgistul Cugir 11 14 16 -2 13
10 Poli Timisoara 2 11 12 27 -15 7
11 Universitatea Alba Iulia 11 7 22 -15 4
12 Nera Bogodinţi 11 5 28 -23 2
Liga III - Serie 7 Romania. Liga III - Serie 7 Predictions