Vulturii Fărcăşeşti vs Minerul Lupeni Statistics & Analysis

Vulturii Fărcăşeşti

Sep 26, 2026 - 14:00

2 1.31

1 1.29

xG Accuracy: 76%

Minerul Lupeni

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Vulturii Fărcăşeşti Vulturii Fărcăşeşti ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 02:09 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10106133

Closing Odds 1.83

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Vulturii Fărcăşeşti win · Vulturii Fărcăşeşti 2–1 Minerul Lupeni

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Vulturii Fărcăşeşti (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 10.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Vulturii Fărcăşeşti (1X2)	35.6	27.4	+8.2
Draw (1X2)	29.7	24.0	+5.6
Minerul Lupeni (1X2)	34.7	48.6	-13.9
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	59.0	-10.8
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	41.0	+10.8

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 41.0%. The difference — about 10.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Bet365

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE5)
Vulturii Fărcăşeşti (1X2)	3.25	3.25
Draw (1X2)	3.7	3.7
Minerul Lupeni (1X2)	1.83	1.83
Over 2.5 goals	1.6	1.6
Under 2.5 goals	2.3	2.3

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Liga III - Serie 6
Fixture: Vulturii Fărcăşeşti vs Minerul Lupeni
Kickoff: 2026-09-26 14:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.7%
xG (showing): Vulturii Fărcăşeşti 1.31 — Minerul Lupeni 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 41.5% · Probability edge: +10.3 pts · Est. EV: +19.1%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

Explore More Predictions Content

Get Premium Predictions for Vulturii Fărcăşeşti & Minerul Lupeni!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now

Back to Statistics

Liga III - Serie 6 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin	6	4	1	1	13
2	CS U Craiova II	6	3	3	0	12
3	Minerul Lupeni	6	4	0	2	12
4	Filiaşi	6	3	2	1	11
5	CSM Targu Jiu	6	3	2	1	11
6	Jiul Petroşani	6	3	1	2	10
7	Unirea Bascov	6	2	2	2	8
8	Vulturii Fărcăşeşti	6	2	2	2	8
9	Oltul Curtişoara	6	2	0	4	6
10	Păușești	6	0	5	1	5
11	Academica Balș	6	1	0	5	3
12	Petrolul Hartiesti	6	0	0	6	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	CS U Craiova II	6	13	7	+6	12
2	Filiaşi	6	13	10	+3	11
3	CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin	6	12	5	+7	13
4	Unirea Bascov	6	11	8	+3	8
5	Vulturii Fărcăşeşti	6	11	11	0	8
6	Jiul Petroşani	6	10	7	+3	10
7	CSM Targu Jiu	6	9	6	+3	11
8	Oltul Curtişoara	6	8	13	-5	6
9	Minerul Lupeni	6	7	3	+4	12
10	Academica Balș	6	7	10	-3	3
11	Păușești	6	6	7	-1	5
12	Petrolul Hartiesti	6	2	22	-20	0