Petrolul Hartiesti vs Unirea Bascov Statistics & Analysis

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Petrolul Hartiesti

Sep 23, 2026 - 14:00

0 1.32

6 1.28

xG Accuracy: 19%

Unirea Bascov

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
1X2 Petrolul Hartiesti Unirea Bascov ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-6 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 17, 2026 · 01:22 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-9164073

Closing Odds 2.0

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Unirea Bascov win · Petrolul Hartiesti 0–6 Unirea Bascov

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 6.35 percentage points on Unirea Bascov (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 10.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Petrolul Hartiesti (1X2)	36.1	31.7	+4.4
Draw (1X2)	29.7	24.0	+5.7
Unirea Bascov (1X2)	34.2	44.4	-10.1
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	59.0	-10.8
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	41.0	+10.8

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 41.0%. The difference — about 10.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Bet365

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)	Implied Δ (pp)
Petrolul Hartiesti (1X2)	2.4	2.8	-5.5
Draw (1X2)	3.6	3.7	-0.8
Unirea Bascov (1X2)	2.35	2.0	+6.3
Over 2.5 goals	1.6	1.6	0.0
Under 2.5 goals	2.3	2.3	0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Liga III - Serie 6
Fixture: Petrolul Hartiesti vs Unirea Bascov
Kickoff: 2026-09-23 14:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
xG (showing): Petrolul Hartiesti 1.32 — Unirea Bascov 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 41.0% · Probability edge: +10.8 pts · Est. EV: +19.1%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga III - Serie 6 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin	6	4	1	1	13
2	CS U Craiova II	6	3	3	0	12
3	Minerul Lupeni	6	4	0	2	12
4	Filiaşi	6	3	2	1	11
5	CSM Targu Jiu	6	3	2	1	11
6	Jiul Petroşani	6	3	1	2	10
7	Unirea Bascov	6	2	2	2	8
8	Vulturii Fărcăşeşti	6	2	2	2	8
9	Oltul Curtişoara	6	2	0	4	6
10	Păușești	6	0	5	1	5
11	Academica Balș	6	1	0	5	3
12	Petrolul Hartiesti	6	0	0	6	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	CS U Craiova II	6	13	7	+6	12
2	Filiaşi	6	13	10	+3	11
3	CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin	6	12	5	+7	13
4	Unirea Bascov	6	11	8	+3	8
5	Vulturii Fărcăşeşti	6	11	11	0	8
6	Jiul Petroşani	6	10	7	+3	10
7	CSM Targu Jiu	6	9	6	+3	11
8	Oltul Curtişoara	6	8	13	-5	6
9	Minerul Lupeni	6	7	3	+4	12
10	Academica Balș	6	7	10	-3	3
11	Păușești	6	6	7	-1	5
12	Petrolul Hartiesti	6	2	22	-20	0