Statistics / Football / Romania. Liga III - Serie 6 / CSM Targu Jiu vs CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin

CSM Targu Jiu vs CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin Statistics & Analysis

CSM Targu Jiu CSM Targu Jiu
Sep 18, 2026 - 17:00
1 1.31
1 1.29
xG Accuracy: 85%
⚽
CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 CSM Targu Jiu Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 12, 2026 · 02:04 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8212064

Closing Odds 1.73
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · CSM Targu Jiu 1–1 CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin (1X2) by about 9.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
CSM Targu Jiu (1X2) 35.6 52.0 -16.4
Draw (1X2) 29.7 23.1 +6.6
CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin (1X2) 34.7 25.0 +9.8
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 56.3 -8.1
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 43.7 +8.1
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 34.7% on CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 25.0%. The difference — about 9.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Bet365

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
CSM Targu Jiu (1X2) 1.73 1.73 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.9 3.9 0.0
CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin (1X2) 3.6 3.6 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.67 1.67 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.15 2.15 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Liga III - Serie 6
  • Fixture: CSM Targu Jiu vs CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-18 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.7%
  • xG (showing): CSM Targu Jiu 1.31 — CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS No (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga III - Serie 6 Liga III - Serie 6 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin 6 4 1 1 13
2 CS U Craiova II 6 3 3 0 12
3 Minerul Lupeni 6 4 0 2 12
4 Filiaşi 6 3 2 1 11
5 CSM Targu Jiu 6 3 2 1 11
6 Jiul Petroşani 6 3 1 2 10
7 Unirea Bascov 6 2 2 2 8
8 Vulturii Fărcăşeşti 6 2 2 2 8
9 Oltul Curtişoara 6 2 0 4 6
10 Păușești 6 0 5 1 5
11 Academica Balș 6 1 0 5 3
12 Petrolul Hartiesti 6 0 0 6 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 CS U Craiova II 6 13 7 +6 12
2 Filiaşi 6 13 10 +3 11
3 CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin 6 12 5 +7 13
4 Unirea Bascov 6 11 8 +3 8
5 Vulturii Fărcăşeşti 6 11 11 0 8
6 Jiul Petroşani 6 10 7 +3 10
7 CSM Targu Jiu 6 9 6 +3 11
8 Oltul Curtişoara 6 8 13 -5 6
9 Minerul Lupeni 6 7 3 +4 12
10 Academica Balș 6 7 10 -3 3
11 Păușești 6 6 7 -1 5
12 Petrolul Hartiesti 6 2 22 -20 0
Liga III - Serie 6 Romania. Liga III - Serie 6 Predictions