Statistics / Football / Romania. Liga III - Serie 5 / Progresul Spartac vs FCSB II

Progresul Spartac vs FCSB II Statistics & Analysis

Progresul Spartac Progresul Spartac
Sep 26, 2026 - 14:00
2 1.30
1 1.30
xG Accuracy: 76%
FCSB II FCSB II
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Progresul Spartac Progresul Spartac ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 02:08 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10105909

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Progresul Spartac win · Progresul Spartac 2–1 FCSB II
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Liga III - Serie 5
  • Fixture: Progresul Spartac vs FCSB II
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-26 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Away 35.2%
  • xG (showing): Progresul Spartac 1.3 — FCSB II 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga III - Serie 5 Liga III - Serie 5 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Omega Sport 6 4 2 0 14
2 LPS HD Clinceni 6 4 1 1 13
3 Dunărea 2020 Giurgiu 6 3 3 0 12
4 Alexandria 6 3 2 1 11
5 Axi Adunații-Copăceni 6 3 0 3 9
6 Dinamo Bucureşti II 6 3 0 3 9
7 Dunărea Turris 6 2 2 2 8
8 Progresul Mogosoaia 6 2 2 2 8
9 Progresul Spartac 6 2 0 4 6
10 Voluntari II 6 1 1 4 4
11 Oxigen Bucuresti 6 1 1 4 4
12 FCSB II 6 1 0 5 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Dunărea Turris 6 17 9 +8 8
2 LPS HD Clinceni 6 16 9 +7 13
3 Dunărea 2020 Giurgiu 6 11 6 +5 12
4 Alexandria 6 10 6 +4 11
5 Progresul Spartac 6 8 7 +1 6
6 Progresul Mogosoaia 6 8 10 -2 8
7 Omega Sport 6 7 3 +4 14
8 Dinamo Bucureşti II 6 7 10 -3 9
9 Oxigen Bucuresti 6 7 13 -6 4
10 Voluntari II 6 6 9 -3 4
11 FCSB II 6 6 20 -14 3
12 Axi Adunații-Copăceni 6 4 5 -1 9
Liga III - Serie 5 Romania. Liga III - Serie 5 Predictions