Progresul Spartac vs Omega Sport Statistics & Analysis

Progresul Spartac

Sep 19, 2026 - 14:00

0 1.30

1 1.30

xG Accuracy: 64%

⚽

Omega Sport

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Progresul Spartac Omega Sport ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 02:25 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8690250

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Omega Sport win · Progresul Spartac 0–1 Omega Sport

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Liga III - Serie 5
Fixture: Progresul Spartac vs Omega Sport
Kickoff: 2026-09-19 14:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Away 35.2%
xG (showing): Progresul Spartac 1.3 — Omega Sport 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga III - Serie 5 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Omega Sport	5	4	1	0	13
2	Dunărea 2020 Giurgiu	5	3	2	0	11
3	LPS HD Clinceni	5	3	1	1	10
4	Dinamo Bucureşti II	5	3	0	2	9
5	Axi Adunații-Copăceni	5	3	0	2	9
6	Alexandria	5	2	2	1	8
7	Dunărea Turris	5	2	1	2	7
8	Progresul Mogosoaia	5	2	1	2	7
9	Oxigen Bucuresti	5	1	1	3	4
10	Progresul Spartac	5	1	0	4	3
11	FCSB II	5	1	0	4	3
12	Voluntari II	5	0	1	4	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Dunărea Turris	5	14	6	+8	7
2	LPS HD Clinceni	5	11	8	+3	10
3	Dunărea 2020 Giurgiu	5	10	5	+5	11
4	Alexandria	5	8	6	+2	8
5	Omega Sport	5	6	2	+4	13
6	Dinamo Bucureşti II	5	6	5	+1	9
7	Progresul Spartac	5	6	6	0	3
8	Oxigen Bucuresti	5	6	11	-5	4
9	Progresul Mogosoaia	5	5	7	-2	7
10	FCSB II	5	5	18	-13	3
11	Axi Adunații-Copăceni	5	4	3	+1	9
12	Voluntari II	5	4	8	-4	1