Statistics / Football / Romania. Liga III - Serie 5 / Progresul Mogosoaia vs Dinamo Bucureşti II

Progresul Mogosoaia vs Dinamo Bucureşti II Statistics & Analysis

Progresul Mogosoaia Progresul Mogosoaia
Sep 19, 2026 - 14:00
0 1.32
3 1.28
xG Accuracy: 43%
Dinamo Bucureşti II Dinamo Bucureşti II
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Progresul Mogosoaia Dinamo Bucureşti II ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 02:25 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8690231

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Dinamo Bucureşti II win · Progresul Mogosoaia 0–3 Dinamo Bucureşti II
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Liga III - Serie 5
  • Fixture: Progresul Mogosoaia vs Dinamo Bucureşti II
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-19 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Progresul Mogosoaia 1.32 — Dinamo Bucureşti II 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga III - Serie 5 Liga III - Serie 5 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Omega Sport 6 4 2 0 14
2 LPS HD Clinceni 6 4 1 1 13
3 Dunărea 2020 Giurgiu 6 3 3 0 12
4 Alexandria 6 3 2 1 11
5 Axi Adunații-Copăceni 6 3 0 3 9
6 Dinamo Bucureşti II 6 3 0 3 9
7 Dunărea Turris 6 2 2 2 8
8 Progresul Mogosoaia 6 2 2 2 8
9 Progresul Spartac 6 2 0 4 6
10 Voluntari II 6 1 1 4 4
11 Oxigen Bucuresti 6 1 1 4 4
12 FCSB II 6 1 0 5 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Dunărea Turris 6 17 9 +8 8
2 LPS HD Clinceni 6 16 9 +7 13
3 Dunărea 2020 Giurgiu 6 11 6 +5 12
4 Alexandria 6 10 6 +4 11
5 Progresul Spartac 6 8 7 +1 6
6 Progresul Mogosoaia 6 8 10 -2 8
7 Omega Sport 6 7 3 +4 14
8 Dinamo Bucureşti II 6 7 10 -3 9
9 Oxigen Bucuresti 6 7 13 -6 4
10 Voluntari II 6 6 9 -3 4
11 FCSB II 6 6 20 -14 3
12 Axi Adunații-Copăceni 6 4 5 -1 9
Liga III - Serie 5 Romania. Liga III - Serie 5 Predictions