Statistics / Football / Romania. Liga III - Serie 4 / FC Oţelul II vs Portul Constanta

FC Oţelul II vs Portul Constanta Statistics & Analysis

FC Oţelul II FC Oţelul II
Oct 02, 2026 - 12:00
2 1.32
1 1.28
xG Accuracy: 77%
⚽
Portul Constanta
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 FC Oţelul II FC Oţelul II ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 26, 2026 · 01:02 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10966837

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result FC Oţelul II win · FC Oţelul II 2–1 Portul Constanta
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Liga III - Serie 4
  • Fixture: FC Oţelul II vs Portul Constanta
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-02 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): FC Oţelul II 1.32 — Portul Constanta 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 10, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga III - Serie 4 Liga III - Serie 4 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Agricola Borcea 7 6 0 1 18
2 Agigea 7 4 2 1 14
3 Înainte Modelu 7 4 1 2 13
4 Axiopolis 7 4 1 2 13
5 Sporting Lieşti 7 4 0 3 12
6 Progresul Fundulea 7 4 0 3 12
7 Recolta Gheorghe Doja 7 4 0 3 12
8 Dunarea Calarasi 7 3 1 3 10
9 Unirea Braniştea 7 3 0 4 9
10 Gloria Băneasa 7 1 1 5 4
11 Portul Constanta 7 1 0 6 3
12 FC Oţelul II 7 1 0 6 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Sporting Lieşti 7 24 16 +8 12
2 Agricola Borcea 7 19 9 +10 18
3 Progresul Fundulea 7 16 12 +4 12
4 Înainte Modelu 7 15 11 +4 13
5 Axiopolis 7 15 12 +3 13
6 Unirea Braniştea 7 13 12 +1 9
7 Recolta Gheorghe Doja 7 13 14 -1 12
8 Agigea 7 11 6 +5 14
9 Portul Constanta 7 11 18 -7 3
10 Dunarea Calarasi 7 7 10 -3 10
11 FC Oţelul II 7 6 20 -14 3
12 Gloria Băneasa 7 5 15 -10 4
Liga III - Serie 4 Romania. Liga III - Serie 4 Predictions