Dunarea Calarasi vs Agigea Statistics & Analysis

Dunarea Calarasi

Oct 02, 2026 - 12:00

0 1.32

0 1.28

xG Accuracy: 49%

Agigea

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Dunarea Calarasi Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 26, 2026 · 01:01 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10966671

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · Dunarea Calarasi 0–0 Agigea

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Liga III - Serie 4
Fixture: Dunarea Calarasi vs Agigea
Kickoff: 2026-10-02 12:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
xG (showing): Dunarea Calarasi 1.32 — Agigea 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 10, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Liga III - Serie 4 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Agricola Borcea	7	6	0	1	18
2	Agigea	7	4	2	1	14
3	Înainte Modelu	7	4	1	2	13
4	Axiopolis	7	4	1	2	13
5	Sporting Lieşti	7	4	0	3	12
6	Progresul Fundulea	7	4	0	3	12
7	Recolta Gheorghe Doja	7	4	0	3	12
8	Dunarea Calarasi	7	3	1	3	10
9	Unirea Braniştea	7	3	0	4	9
10	Gloria Băneasa	7	1	1	5	4
11	Portul Constanta	7	1	0	6	3
12	FC Oţelul II	7	1	0	6	3

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Sporting Lieşti	7	24	16	+8	12
2	Agricola Borcea	7	19	9	+10	18
3	Progresul Fundulea	7	16	12	+4	12
4	Înainte Modelu	7	15	11	+4	13
5	Axiopolis	7	15	12	+3	13
6	Unirea Braniştea	7	13	12	+1	9
7	Recolta Gheorghe Doja	7	13	14	-1	12
8	Agigea	7	11	6	+5	14
9	Portul Constanta	7	11	18	-7	3
10	Dunarea Calarasi	7	7	10	-3	10
11	FC Oţelul II	7	6	20	-14	3
12	Gloria Băneasa	7	5	15	-10	4