Progresul Fundulea vs Axiopolis Statistics & Analysis

Progresul Fundulea

Sep 23, 2026 - 14:00

4 1.32

0 1.28

xG Accuracy: 34%

Axiopolis

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Progresul Fundulea Progresul Fundulea ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 4-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 17, 2026 · 01:21 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-9163895

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Progresul Fundulea win · Progresul Fundulea 4–0 Axiopolis

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Liga III - Serie 4
Fixture: Progresul Fundulea vs Axiopolis
Kickoff: 2026-09-23 14:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
xG (showing): Progresul Fundulea 1.32 — Axiopolis 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 26, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga III - Serie 4 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Agigea	5	4	1	0	13
2	Agricola Borcea	5	4	0	1	12
3	Înainte Modelu	5	3	1	1	10
4	Sporting Lieşti	5	3	0	2	9
5	Progresul Fundulea	5	3	0	2	9
6	Recolta Gheorghe Doja	5	3	0	2	9
7	Axiopolis	5	2	1	2	7
8	Unirea Braniştea	5	2	0	3	6
9	Dunarea Calarasi	5	2	0	3	6
10	Gloria Băneasa	5	1	1	3	4
11	Portul Constanta	5	1	0	4	3
12	FC Oţelul II	5	0	0	5	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Sporting Lieşti	5	15	10	+5	9
2	Înainte Modelu	5	14	10	+4	10
3	Progresul Fundulea	5	13	9	+4	9
4	Agigea	5	11	5	+6	13
5	Agricola Borcea	5	11	5	+6	12
6	Recolta Gheorghe Doja	5	10	10	0	9
7	Unirea Braniştea	5	9	8	+1	6
8	Portul Constanta	5	9	14	-5	3
9	Axiopolis	5	8	8	0	7
10	Dunarea Calarasi	5	5	9	-4	6
11	Gloria Băneasa	5	3	10	-7	4
12	FC Oţelul II	5	3	13	-10	0