Statistics / Football / Romania. Liga III - Serie 4 / Sporting Lieşti vs Înainte Modelu

Sporting Lieşti vs Înainte Modelu Statistics & Analysis

Sporting Lieşti Sporting Lieşti
Sep 19, 2026 - 14:00
5 1.32
4 1.28
xG Accuracy: 17%
Înainte Modelu Înainte Modelu
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (9 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Sporting Lieşti Sporting Lieşti ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 5-4 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 02:25 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8690130

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Sporting Lieşti win · Sporting Lieşti 5–4 Înainte Modelu
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Liga III - Serie 4
  • Fixture: Sporting Lieşti vs Înainte Modelu
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-19 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Sporting Lieşti 1.32 — Înainte Modelu 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga III - Serie 4 Liga III - Serie 4 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Agigea 5 4 1 0 13
2 Agricola Borcea 5 4 0 1 12
3 Înainte Modelu 5 3 1 1 10
4 Sporting Lieşti 5 3 0 2 9
5 Progresul Fundulea 5 3 0 2 9
6 Recolta Gheorghe Doja 5 3 0 2 9
7 Axiopolis 5 2 1 2 7
8 Unirea Braniştea 5 2 0 3 6
9 Dunarea Calarasi 5 2 0 3 6
10 Gloria Băneasa 5 1 1 3 4
11 Portul Constanta 5 1 0 4 3
12 FC Oţelul II 5 0 0 5 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Sporting Lieşti 5 15 10 +5 9
2 Înainte Modelu 5 14 10 +4 10
3 Progresul Fundulea 5 13 9 +4 9
4 Agigea 5 11 5 +6 13
5 Agricola Borcea 5 11 5 +6 12
6 Recolta Gheorghe Doja 5 10 10 0 9
7 Unirea Braniştea 5 9 8 +1 6
8 Portul Constanta 5 9 14 -5 3
9 Axiopolis 5 8 8 0 7
10 Dunarea Calarasi 5 5 9 -4 6
11 Gloria Băneasa 5 3 10 -7 4
12 FC Oţelul II 5 3 13 -10 0
Liga III - Serie 4 Romania. Liga III - Serie 4 Predictions