Agigea vs Recolta Gheorghe Doja Statistics & Analysis

Agigea

Aug 29, 2026 - 15:00

5 1.32

3 1.28

xG Accuracy: 23%

Recolta Gheorghe Doja

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (8 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Agigea Agigea ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 5-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 25, 2026 · 01:02 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5388736

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Agigea win · Agigea 5–3 Recolta Gheorghe Doja

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Liga III - Serie 4
Fixture: Agigea vs Recolta Gheorghe Doja
Kickoff: 2026-08-29 14:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
xG (showing): Agigea 1.32 — Recolta Gheorghe Doja 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga III - Serie 4 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Agricola Borcea	6	5	0	1	15
2	Înainte Modelu	6	4	1	1	13
3	Agigea	6	4	1	1	13
4	Sporting Lieşti	6	4	0	2	12
5	Recolta Gheorghe Doja	6	4	0	2	12
6	Axiopolis	6	3	1	2	10
7	Progresul Fundulea	6	3	0	3	9
8	Dunarea Calarasi	6	3	0	3	9
9	Unirea Braniştea	6	2	0	4	6
10	Gloria Băneasa	6	1	1	4	4
11	Portul Constanta	6	1	0	5	3
12	FC Oţelul II	6	0	0	6	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Sporting Lieşti	6	21	11	+10	12
2	Înainte Modelu	6	15	10	+5	13
3	Agricola Borcea	6	14	6	+8	15
4	Progresul Fundulea	6	14	11	+3	9
5	Recolta Gheorghe Doja	6	12	11	+1	12
6	Axiopolis	6	12	11	+1	10
7	Unirea Braniştea	6	12	12	0	6
8	Agigea	6	11	6	+5	13
9	Portul Constanta	6	10	16	-6	3
10	Dunarea Calarasi	6	7	10	-3	9
11	Gloria Băneasa	6	4	13	-9	4
12	FC Oţelul II	6	4	19	-15	0