Berca vs Progresul Draganesti Statistics & Analysis

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Berca

Sep 22, 2026 - 14:00

3 1.32

0 1.28

xG Accuracy: 44%

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Progresul Draganesti

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Berca Berca ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 16, 2026 · 02:27 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8987527

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Berca win · Berca 3–0 Progresul Draganesti

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Liga III - Serie 3
Fixture: Berca vs Progresul Draganesti
Kickoff: 2026-09-22 14:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
xG (showing): Berca 1.32 — Progresul Draganesti 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 25, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Liga III - Serie 3 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Berca	5	4	1	0	13
2	Flacăra Moreni	5	4	1	0	13
3	Tunari	5	4	1	0	13
4	Voința Crevedia	5	2	1	2	7
5	Blejoi	5	2	1	2	7
6	Progresul Draganesti	5	2	1	2	7
7	Plopeni	5	2	0	3	6
8	Viitorul Corbeanca	5	1	2	2	5
9	Râmnicu Sărat	5	1	2	2	5
10	Urban Titu	5	1	1	3	4
11	Pucioasa	5	0	2	3	2
12	Păuleşti	5	0	1	4	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Berca	5	13	4	+9	13
2	Flacăra Moreni	5	13	4	+9	13
3	Tunari	5	12	3	+9	13
4	Voința Crevedia	5	12	9	+3	7
5	Blejoi	5	9	7	+2	7
6	Progresul Draganesti	5	6	8	-2	7
7	Râmnicu Sărat	5	5	9	-4	5
8	Plopeni	5	5	10	-5	6
9	Urban Titu	5	5	11	-6	4
10	Pucioasa	5	3	6	-3	2
11	Viitorul Corbeanca	5	1	4	-3	5
12	Păuleşti	5	1	10	-9	1