Statistics / Football / Romania. Liga III - Serie 3 / Flacăra Moreni vs Păuleşti

Flacăra Moreni vs Păuleşti Statistics & Analysis

Flacăra Moreni Flacăra Moreni
Sep 18, 2026 - 14:00
1 1.32
1 1.28
xG Accuracy: 85%
Păuleşti Păuleşti
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Flacăra Moreni Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 12, 2026 · 01:21 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8200175

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Flacăra Moreni 1–1 Păuleşti
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Liga III - Serie 3
  • Fixture: Flacăra Moreni vs Păuleşti
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-18 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Flacăra Moreni 1.32 — Păuleşti 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga III - Serie 3 Liga III - Serie 3 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Flacăra Moreni 6 5 1 0 16
2 Berca 6 4 1 1 13
3 Tunari 6 4 1 1 13
4 Blejoi 6 3 1 2 10
5 Plopeni 6 3 0 3 9
6 Progresul Draganesti 6 2 2 2 8
7 Voința Crevedia 6 2 1 3 7
8 Viitorul Corbeanca 6 1 3 2 6
9 Pucioasa 6 1 2 3 5
10 Urban Titu 6 1 2 3 5
11 Râmnicu Sărat 6 1 2 3 5
12 Păuleşti 6 0 2 4 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Flacăra Moreni 6 19 4 +15 16
2 Blejoi 6 15 8 +7 10
3 Berca 6 14 10 +4 13
4 Tunari 6 12 9 +3 13
5 Voința Crevedia 6 12 10 +2 7
6 Progresul Draganesti 6 8 10 -2 8
7 Urban Titu 6 7 13 -6 5
8 Pucioasa 6 6 6 0 5
9 Plopeni 6 6 10 -4 9
10 Râmnicu Sărat 6 5 12 -7 5
11 Viitorul Corbeanca 6 2 5 -3 6
12 Păuleşti 6 2 11 -9 2
Liga III - Serie 3 Romania. Liga III - Serie 3 Predictions