Statistics / Football / Romania. Liga III - Serie 1 / CSM FC Vaslui vs USV Iaşi

CSM FC Vaslui vs USV Iaşi Statistics & Analysis

CSM FC Vaslui CSM FC Vaslui
Oct 03, 2026 - 12:00
2 1.37
1 1.23
xG Accuracy: 79%
USV Iaşi USV Iaşi
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 CSM FC Vaslui CSM FC Vaslui ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 01:39 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11228124

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result CSM FC Vaslui win · CSM FC Vaslui 2–1 USV Iaşi
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Liga III - Serie 1
  • Fixture: CSM FC Vaslui vs USV Iaşi
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-03 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Away 31.9%
  • xG (showing): CSM FC Vaslui 1.37 — USV Iaşi 1.23 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 12, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga III - Serie 1 Liga III - Serie 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 CSM FC Vaslui 7 6 1 0 19
2 USV Iaşi 7 5 1 1 16
3 CSM Adjud 7 4 2 1 14
4 Aerostar Bacau 7 4 0 3 12
5 Târgu Secuiesc 7 3 2 2 11
6 FC Bacău II 7 3 2 2 11
7 Bradul Putna 7 3 1 3 10
8 Odorheiu Secuiesc 7 2 4 1 10
9 Gheorgheni 7 2 1 4 7
10 Viitorul Curiţa 7 1 1 5 4
11 Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ 7 0 2 5 2
12 Paşcani 7 0 1 6 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Bradul Putna 7 18 13 +5 10
2 CSM FC Vaslui 7 17 7 +10 19
3 Târgu Secuiesc 7 16 13 +3 11
4 CSM Adjud 7 15 7 +8 14
5 Aerostar Bacau 7 13 8 +5 12
6 USV Iaşi 7 10 5 +5 16
7 Gheorgheni 7 10 12 -2 7
8 Viitorul Curiţa 7 10 12 -2 4
9 FC Bacău II 7 9 13 -4 11
10 Odorheiu Secuiesc 7 8 7 +1 10
11 Paşcani 7 7 22 -15 1
12 Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ 7 2 16 -14 2
Liga III - Serie 1 Romania. Liga III - Serie 1 Predictions