Statistics / Football / Romania. Liga III - Serie 1 / CSM Adjud vs Târgu Secuiesc

CSM Adjud vs Târgu Secuiesc Statistics & Analysis

CSM Adjud CSM Adjud
Sep 12, 2026 - 14:00
2 1.23
2 1.37
xG Accuracy: 68%
Târgu Secuiesc Târgu Secuiesc
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Târgu Secuiesc Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 02:02 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7451416

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · CSM Adjud 2–2 Târgu Secuiesc
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Liga III - Serie 1
  • Fixture: CSM Adjud vs Târgu Secuiesc
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-12 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 38.5%
  • xG (showing): CSM Adjud 1.23 — Târgu Secuiesc 1.37 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga III - Serie 1 Liga III - Serie 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 CSM FC Vaslui 6 5 1 0 16
2 USV Iaşi 6 5 1 0 16
3 CSM Adjud 6 4 1 1 13
4 Odorheiu Secuiesc 6 2 4 0 10
5 FC Bacău II 6 3 1 2 10
6 Aerostar Bacau 6 3 0 3 9
7 Târgu Secuiesc 6 2 2 2 8
8 Bradul Putna 6 2 1 3 7
9 Gheorgheni 6 2 0 4 6
10 Viitorul Curiţa 6 1 1 4 4
11 Paşcani 6 0 1 5 1
12 Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ 6 0 1 5 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Bradul Putna 6 16 12 +4 7
2 CSM FC Vaslui 6 15 6 +9 16
3 CSM Adjud 6 14 6 +8 13
4 Târgu Secuiesc 6 13 12 +1 8
5 USV Iaşi 6 9 3 +6 16
6 Viitorul Curiţa 6 9 10 -1 4
7 Gheorgheni 6 9 11 -2 6
8 Aerostar Bacau 6 8 8 0 9
9 FC Bacău II 6 8 12 -4 10
10 Odorheiu Secuiesc 6 7 4 +3 10
11 Paşcani 6 7 17 -10 1
12 Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ 6 1 15 -14 1
Liga III - Serie 1 Romania. Liga III - Serie 1 Predictions