Paşcani vs CSM Adjud Statistics & Analysis

Paşcani

Sep 04, 2026 - 14:00

1 1.41

2 1.19

xG Accuracy: 72%

CSM Adjud

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Paşcani CSM Adjud ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 1-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 29, 2026 · 01:26 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5906836

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result CSM Adjud win · Paşcani 1–2 CSM Adjud

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Liga III - Serie 1
Fixture: Paşcani vs CSM Adjud
Kickoff: 2026-09-04 14:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · Away 30.1%
xG (showing): Paşcani 1.41 — CSM Adjud 1.19 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Liga III - Serie 1 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	CSM FC Vaslui	6	5	1	0	16
2	USV Iaşi	6	5	1	0	16
3	CSM Adjud	6	4	1	1	13
4	Odorheiu Secuiesc	6	2	4	0	10
5	FC Bacău II	6	3	1	2	10
6	Aerostar Bacau	6	3	0	3	9
7	Târgu Secuiesc	6	2	2	2	8
8	Bradul Putna	6	2	1	3	7
9	Gheorgheni	6	2	0	4	6
10	Viitorul Curiţa	6	1	1	4	4
11	Paşcani	6	0	1	5	1
12	Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ	6	0	1	5	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Bradul Putna	6	16	12	+4	7
2	CSM FC Vaslui	6	15	6	+9	16
3	CSM Adjud	6	14	6	+8	13
4	Târgu Secuiesc	6	13	12	+1	8
5	USV Iaşi	6	9	3	+6	16
6	Viitorul Curiţa	6	9	10	-1	4
7	Gheorgheni	6	9	11	-2	6
8	Aerostar Bacau	6	8	8	0	9
9	FC Bacău II	6	8	12	-4	10
10	Odorheiu Secuiesc	6	7	4	+3	10
11	Paşcani	6	7	17	-10	1
12	Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ	6	1	15	-14	1