Pars Jonoubi JAM vs Naft Masjed Soleyman Statistics & Analysis

Pars Jonoubi JAM

Sep 28, 2026 - 15:30

3 1.42

2 1.18

xG Accuracy: 52%

Naft Masjed Soleyman

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Pars Jonoubi JAM Pars Jonoubi JAM ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 22, 2026 · 02:01 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10250482

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Pars Jonoubi JAM win · Pars Jonoubi JAM 3–2 Naft Masjed Soleyman

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Azadegan League
Fixture: Pars Jonoubi JAM vs Naft Masjed Soleyman
Kickoff: 2026-09-28 15:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.0% · Draw 29.4% · Away 29.6%
xG (showing): Pars Jonoubi JAM 1.42 — Naft Masjed Soleyman 1.18 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Azadegan League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Saipa	3	3	0	0	9
2	Ario Eslamshahr	3	2	0	1	6
3	Pars Jonoubi JAM	3	1	2	0	5
4	Fard Alborz	3	1	2	0	5
5	Naft Bandar Abbas	3	1	2	0	5
6	Be'sat Kermanshah	2	1	1	0	4
7	Naft Masjed Soleyman	3	1	0	2	3
8	Shahin Bandar Ameri	3	0	3	0	3
9	Shenavarsazi Qeshm	3	0	3	0	3
10	Niroye Zamini	3	1	0	2	3
11	Mes Rafsanjan	2	0	2	0	2
12	Novin Ahvaz	3	0	2	1	2
13	Mes Kerman	3	0	2	1	2
14	Naft Gachsaran	3	0	2	1	2
15	Mes Soongoun	3	0	2	1	2
16	Havadar	3	0	1	2	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Saipa	3	5	1	+4	9
2	Naft Masjed Soleyman	3	5	4	+1	3
3	Novin Ahvaz	3	4	5	-1	2
4	Be'sat Kermanshah	2	3	0	+3	4
5	Pars Jonoubi JAM	3	3	2	+1	5
6	Ario Eslamshahr	3	3	3	0	6
7	Shahin Bandar Ameri	3	3	3	0	3
8	Fard Alborz	3	2	1	+1	5
9	Naft Bandar Abbas	3	2	1	+1	5
10	Shenavarsazi Qeshm	3	2	2	0	3
11	Niroye Zamini	3	2	3	-1	3
12	Mes Kerman	3	2	3	-1	2
13	Mes Soongoun	3	1	3	-2	2
14	Mes Rafsanjan	2	0	0	0	2
15	Naft Gachsaran	3	0	1	-1	2
16	Havadar	3	0	5	-5	1