Naft Masjed Soleyman vs Naft Bandar Abbas Statistics & Analysis

Naft Masjed Soleyman

Sep 22, 2026 - 16:00

0 1.30

1 1.30

xG Accuracy: 64%

Naft Bandar Abbas

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Naft Masjed Soleyman Naft Bandar Abbas ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 16, 2026 · 02:35 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8989473

Closing Odds 2.78

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Naft Bandar Abbas win · Naft Masjed Soleyman 0–1 Naft Bandar Abbas

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Naft Masjed Soleyman (1X2), Naft Bandar Abbas (1X2), Over 2.5 goals, BTTS Yes meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 14.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Naft Masjed Soleyman (1X2)	35.2	34.0	+1.2
Draw (1X2)	29.6	32.0	-2.4
Naft Bandar Abbas (1X2)	35.2	34.0	+1.2
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	33.6	+14.6
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	66.4	-14.6
BTTS Yes	54.5	41.7	+12.8
BTTS No	45.5	58.3	-12.8

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 48.2% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 33.6%. The difference — about 14.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Marathonbet

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Naft Masjed Soleyman (1X2)	2.62	2.62
Draw (1X2)	2.78	2.78
Naft Bandar Abbas (1X2)	2.62	2.62
Over 2.5 goals	2.69	2.69
Under 2.5 goals	1.36	1.36
BTTS Yes	2.18	2.18
BTTS No	1.56	1.56

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Azadegan League
Fixture: Naft Masjed Soleyman vs Naft Bandar Abbas
Kickoff: 2026-09-22 16:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Away 35.2%
xG (showing): Naft Masjed Soleyman 1.3 — Naft Bandar Abbas 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS Yes
Model: 54.5% · Implied: 42.9% · Probability edge: +11.6 pts · Est. EV: +18.8%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Azadegan League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Saipa	3	3	0	0	9
2	Ario Eslamshahr	3	2	0	1	6
3	Pars Jonoubi JAM	3	1	2	0	5
4	Fard Alborz	3	1	2	0	5
5	Naft Bandar Abbas	3	1	2	0	5
6	Be'sat Kermanshah	2	1	1	0	4
7	Naft Masjed Soleyman	3	1	0	2	3
8	Shahin Bandar Ameri	3	0	3	0	3
9	Shenavarsazi Qeshm	3	0	3	0	3
10	Niroye Zamini	3	1	0	2	3
11	Mes Rafsanjan	2	0	2	0	2
12	Novin Ahvaz	3	0	2	1	2
13	Mes Kerman	3	0	2	1	2
14	Naft Gachsaran	3	0	2	1	2
15	Mes Soongoun	3	0	2	1	2
16	Havadar	3	0	1	2	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Saipa	3	5	1	+4	9
2	Naft Masjed Soleyman	3	5	4	+1	3
3	Novin Ahvaz	3	4	5	-1	2
4	Be'sat Kermanshah	2	3	0	+3	4
5	Pars Jonoubi JAM	3	3	2	+1	5
6	Ario Eslamshahr	3	3	3	0	6
7	Shahin Bandar Ameri	3	3	3	0	3
8	Fard Alborz	3	2	1	+1	5
9	Naft Bandar Abbas	3	2	1	+1	5
10	Shenavarsazi Qeshm	3	2	2	0	3
11	Niroye Zamini	3	2	3	-1	3
12	Mes Kerman	3	2	3	-1	2
13	Mes Soongoun	3	1	3	-2	2
14	Mes Rafsanjan	2	0	0	0	2
15	Naft Gachsaran	3	0	1	-1	2
16	Havadar	3	0	5	-5	1