Niroye Zamini vs Fard Alborz Statistics & Analysis

Niroye Zamini

Sep 21, 2026 - 13:00

0 1.15

1 1.45

xG Accuracy: 64%

Fard Alborz

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Fard Alborz Fard Alborz ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 15, 2026 · 02:26 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8835813

Closing Odds 2.81

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Fard Alborz win · Niroye Zamini 0–1 Fard Alborz

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Fard Alborz (1X2), Over 2.5 goals, BTTS Yes meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 17.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Niroye Zamini (1X2)	28.4	35.5	-7.1
Draw (1X2)	29.2	32.8	-3.5
Fard Alborz (1X2)	42.4	31.7	+10.6
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	31.0	+17.2
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	69.0	-17.2
BTTS Yes	53.9	38.9	+15.0
BTTS No	46.1	61.1	-15.0

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 48.2% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 31.0%. The difference — about 17.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Marathonbet

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Niroye Zamini (1X2)	2.51	2.51
Draw (1X2)	2.72	2.72
Fard Alborz (1X2)	2.81	2.81
Over 2.5 goals	2.92	2.92
Under 2.5 goals	1.31	1.31
BTTS Yes	2.34	2.34
BTTS No	1.49	1.49

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Azadegan League
Fixture: Niroye Zamini vs Fard Alborz
Kickoff: 2026-09-21 13:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 28.4% · Draw 29.2% · Away 42.4%
xG (showing): Niroye Zamini 1.15 — Fard Alborz 1.45 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
Model: 53.9% · Implied: 39.4% · Probability edge: +14.5 pts · Est. EV: +26.1%
BTTS (model): Yes 53.9% · No 46.1%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Azadegan League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Saipa	3	3	0	0	9
2	Ario Eslamshahr	3	2	0	1	6
3	Pars Jonoubi JAM	3	1	2	0	5
4	Fard Alborz	3	1	2	0	5
5	Naft Bandar Abbas	3	1	2	0	5
6	Be'sat Kermanshah	2	1	1	0	4
7	Naft Masjed Soleyman	3	1	0	2	3
8	Shahin Bandar Ameri	3	0	3	0	3
9	Shenavarsazi Qeshm	3	0	3	0	3
10	Niroye Zamini	3	1	0	2	3
11	Mes Rafsanjan	2	0	2	0	2
12	Novin Ahvaz	3	0	2	1	2
13	Mes Kerman	3	0	2	1	2
14	Naft Gachsaran	3	0	2	1	2
15	Mes Soongoun	3	0	2	1	2
16	Havadar	3	0	1	2	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Saipa	3	5	1	+4	9
2	Naft Masjed Soleyman	3	5	4	+1	3
3	Novin Ahvaz	3	4	5	-1	2
4	Be'sat Kermanshah	2	3	0	+3	4
5	Pars Jonoubi JAM	3	3	2	+1	5
6	Ario Eslamshahr	3	3	3	0	6
7	Shahin Bandar Ameri	3	3	3	0	3
8	Fard Alborz	3	2	1	+1	5
9	Naft Bandar Abbas	3	2	1	+1	5
10	Shenavarsazi Qeshm	3	2	2	0	3
11	Niroye Zamini	3	2	3	-1	3
12	Mes Kerman	3	2	3	-1	2
13	Mes Soongoun	3	1	3	-2	2
14	Mes Rafsanjan	2	0	0	0	2
15	Naft Gachsaran	3	0	1	-1	2
16	Havadar	3	0	5	-5	1