Statistics / Football / Brazil. Paraense B2 / Tesla vs Paraense SC

Tesla vs Paraense SC Statistics & Analysis

Tesla Tesla
Sep 13, 2026 - 18:30
0 1.24
1 1.36
xG Accuracy: 64%
Paraense SC Paraense SC
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Paraense SC Paraense SC ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 12, 2026 · 01:12 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8197096

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Paraense SC win · Tesla 0–1 Paraense SC
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Paraense B2
  • Fixture: Tesla vs Paraense SC
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-18 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 38.0%
  • xG (showing): Tesla 1.24 — Paraense SC 1.36 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Paraense B2 Paraense B2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Gavião 4 3 1 0 10
2 Pedreira 4 3 0 1 9
3 Parauapebas 4 2 1 1 7
4 Belenense 4 2 1 1 7
5 Vénus 4 2 1 1 7
6 Sport Belem 3 2 0 1 6
7 Pinheirense 4 1 3 0 6
8 Tesla 4 1 2 1 5
9 Paraense SC 4 1 1 2 4
10 CA Vila Rica 3 0 1 2 1
11 ESMAC 4 0 1 3 1
12 Altamira 4 0 0 4 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Belenense 4 14 9 +5 7
2 Parauapebas 4 12 5 +7 7
3 Pedreira 4 10 3 +7 9
4 Sport Belem 3 8 4 +4 6
5 Vénus 4 8 5 +3 7
6 Gavião 4 6 2 +4 10
7 Tesla 4 6 5 +1 5
8 Pinheirense 4 4 3 +1 6
9 ESMAC 4 4 14 -10 1
10 Paraense SC 4 2 4 -2 4
11 CA Vila Rica 3 2 11 -9 1
12 Altamira 4 2 13 -11 0