Statistics / Football / Brazil. Paraense B2 / Belenense vs CA Vila Rica

Belenense vs CA Vila Rica Statistics & Analysis

Belenense Belenense
Sep 11, 2026 - 13:00
8 1.45
0 1.15
xG Accuracy: 12%
CA Vila Rica CA Vila Rica
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (8 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Belenense Belenense ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 8-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 05, 2026 · 01:13 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7023681

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Belenense win · Belenense 8–0 CA Vila Rica
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Paraense B2
  • Fixture: Belenense vs CA Vila Rica
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-11 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 42.4% · Draw 29.2% · Away 28.4%
  • xG (showing): Belenense 1.45 — CA Vila Rica 1.15 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.9% · No 46.1%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.9% · No 46.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Paraense B2 Paraense B2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Gavião 4 3 1 0 10
2 Pedreira 4 3 0 1 9
3 Parauapebas 4 2 1 1 7
4 Belenense 4 2 1 1 7
5 Vénus 4 2 1 1 7
6 Sport Belem 3 2 0 1 6
7 Pinheirense 4 1 3 0 6
8 Tesla 4 1 2 1 5
9 Paraense SC 4 1 1 2 4
10 CA Vila Rica 3 0 1 2 1
11 ESMAC 4 0 1 3 1
12 Altamira 4 0 0 4 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Belenense 4 14 9 +5 7
2 Parauapebas 4 12 5 +7 7
3 Pedreira 4 10 3 +7 9
4 Sport Belem 3 8 4 +4 6
5 Vénus 4 8 5 +3 7
6 Gavião 4 6 2 +4 10
7 Tesla 4 6 5 +1 5
8 Pinheirense 4 4 3 +1 6
9 ESMAC 4 4 14 -10 1
10 Paraense SC 4 2 4 -2 4
11 CA Vila Rica 3 2 11 -9 1
12 Altamira 4 2 13 -11 0