Statistics / Football / Rwanda. National Soccer League / Amagaju vs Etoile de l'Est

Amagaju vs Etoile de l'Est Statistics & Analysis

Amagaju Amagaju
Sep 05, 2026 - 13:00
2 1.23
0 1.37
xG Accuracy: 56%
Etoile de l'Est Etoile de l'Est
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Etoile de l'Est Amagaju ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 30, 2026 · 02:13 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6140681

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Amagaju win · Amagaju 2–0 Etoile de l'Est
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: National Soccer League
  • Fixture: Amagaju vs Etoile de l'Est
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-05 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 38.5%
  • xG (showing): Amagaju 1.23 — Etoile de l'Est 1.37 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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National Soccer League National Soccer League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Gicumbi 3 3 0 0 9
2 Etincelles 3 2 1 0 7
3 Amagaju 3 1 1 1 4
4 APR 1 1 0 0 3
5 Al Hilal Omdurman 1 1 0 0 3
6 Mukura 2 1 0 1 3
7 Marines 2 1 0 1 3
8 Police 2 1 0 1 3
9 Gorilla 2 1 0 1 3
10 Musanze 2 1 0 1 3
11 Kiyovu Sports 3 1 0 2 3
12 Sunrise 2 0 2 0 2
13 Rayon Sports 1 0 1 0 1
14 Al Merreikh 1 0 1 0 1
15 Etoile de l'Est 3 0 1 2 1
16 AS Kigali 3 0 1 2 1
17 Bugesera 1 0 0 1 0
18 Gasogi United 1 0 0 1 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Gicumbi 3 5 2 +3 9
2 APR 1 4 2 +2 3
3 Marines 2 4 4 0 3
4 Etincelles 3 2 0 +2 7
5 Al Hilal Omdurman 1 2 0 +2 3
6 Amagaju 3 2 1 +1 4
7 Mukura 2 2 1 +1 3
8 Police 2 2 2 0 3
9 Gorilla 2 1 1 0 3
10 Musanze 2 1 1 0 3
11 Sunrise 2 1 1 0 2
12 Rayon Sports 1 1 1 0 1
13 Kiyovu Sports 3 1 2 -1 3
14 Etoile de l'Est 3 1 4 -3 1
15 Al Merreikh 1 0 0 0 1
16 Bugesera 1 0 1 -1 0
17 Gasogi United 1 0 2 -2 0
18 AS Kigali 3 0 4 -4 1