Statistics / Football / Australia. South Australia State League 1 / Adelaide Olympic vs Modbury Jets

Adelaide Olympic vs Modbury Jets Statistics & Analysis

Adelaide Olympic Adelaide Olympic
Aug 28, 2026 - 10:30
0 1.29
4 1.31
xG Accuracy: 34%
Modbury Jets Modbury Jets
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Modbury Jets Modbury Jets ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-4 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 25, 2026 · 01:41 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5394688

Closing Odds 2.09
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Modbury Jets win · Adelaide Olympic 0–4 Modbury Jets
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Adelaide Olympic (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Adelaide Olympic (1X2) by about 5.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Adelaide Olympic (1X2) 34.7 29.4 +5.3
Draw (1X2) 29.7 27.3 +2.3
Modbury Jets (1X2) 35.6 43.3 -7.7
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 52.1 -3.9
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 47.9 +3.9
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 34.7% on Adelaide Olympic (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 29.4%. The difference — about 5.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Adelaide Olympic (1X2) 3.08 3.08 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.31 3.31 0.0
Modbury Jets (1X2) 2.09 2.09 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.8 1.8 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.96 1.96 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: South Australia State League 1
  • Fixture: Adelaide Olympic vs Modbury Jets
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-28 10:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Away 35.6%
  • xG (showing): Adelaide Olympic 1.29 — Modbury Jets 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 45.1% · Probability edge: +6.7 pts · Est. EV: +14.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
South Australia State League 1 South Australia State League 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Adelaide Raiders 22 15 2 5 47
2 Modbury Jets 22 13 5 4 44
3 Adelaide Olympic 22 14 1 7 43
4 Fulham United 22 11 4 7 37
5 Adelaide Blue Eagles 22 10 6 6 36
6 Adelaide Victory 22 11 3 8 36
7 Cumberland United 22 11 1 10 34
8 The Cove 22 7 5 10 26
9 Eastern United 22 6 4 12 22
10 Adelaide Cobras 22 6 2 14 20
11 Salisbury United 22 5 2 15 17
12 South Adelaide Panthers 22 4 3 15 15
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Adelaide Raiders 22 56 26 +30 47
2 Modbury Jets 22 46 20 +26 44
3 Adelaide Olympic 22 42 25 +17 43
4 Fulham United 22 42 31 +11 37
5 Adelaide Victory 22 40 34 +6 36
6 Cumberland United 22 36 28 +8 34
7 Adelaide Blue Eagles 22 36 29 +7 36
8 The Cove 22 29 36 -7 26
9 Salisbury United 22 28 48 -20 17
10 South Adelaide Panthers 22 26 62 -36 15
11 Eastern United 22 25 44 -19 22
12 Adelaide Cobras 22 22 45 -23 20