Cuniburo vs 9 de Octubre Statistics & Analysis

Cuniburo

Sep 17, 2026 - 20:15

1 1.38

0 1.22

xG Accuracy: 64%

9 de Octubre

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Cuniburo Cuniburo ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 11, 2026 · 04:14 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8000822

Closing Odds 4.15

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Cuniburo win · Cuniburo 1–0 9 de Octubre

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices 9 de Octubre (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 18.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Cuniburo (1X2)	39.0	43.6	-4.6
Draw (1X2)	29.5	34.4	-4.8
9 de Octubre (1X2)	31.5	22.0	+9.4
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	29.4	+18.8
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	70.6	-18.8

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 48.2% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 29.4%. The difference — about 18.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Cuniburo (1X2)	2.1	2.1
Draw (1X2)	2.66	2.66
9 de Octubre (1X2)	4.15	4.15
Over 2.5 goals	3.17	3.17
Under 2.5 goals	1.32	1.32

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Liga Pro Serie B
Fixture: Cuniburo vs 9 de Octubre
Kickoff: 2026-09-17 20:15:00
1X2 (model): Home 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.5%
xG (showing): Cuniburo 1.38 — 9 de Octubre 1.22 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS Yes
Model: 54.4% · Implied: 36.7% · Probability edge: +17.7 pts · Est. EV: +38.7%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga Pro Serie B — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Ind. Juniors	22	10	9	3	39
2	Atletico FC	22	9	11	2	38
3	9 de Octubre	22	9	10	3	37
4	Deportivo Cuenca Juniors	22	9	7	6	34
5	Cuniburo	22	8	7	7	31
6	San Antonio	22	7	10	5	31
7	Gualaceo SC	22	7	8	7	29
8	Santo Domingo	22	6	10	6	28
9	LDU Portoviejo	22	7	6	9	27
10	Cumbayá	22	5	11	6	26
11	22 de Julio	22	4	3	15	15
12	El Nacional	22	2	6	14	12

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Ind. Juniors	22	28	16	+12	39
2	Atletico FC	22	25	14	+11	38
3	Cuniburo	22	25	17	+8	31
4	San Antonio	22	24	21	+3	31
5	9 de Octubre	22	22	14	+8	37
6	Cumbayá	22	22	22	0	26
7	Deportivo Cuenca Juniors	22	20	23	-3	34
8	Gualaceo SC	22	19	16	+3	29
9	Santo Domingo	22	17	16	+1	28
10	LDU Portoviejo	22	17	22	-5	27
11	El Nacional	22	15	32	-17	12
12	22 de Julio	22	10	31	-21	15