Statistics / Football / Ecuador. Liga Pro Serie B / Deportivo Cuenca Juniors vs 9 de Octubre

Deportivo Cuenca Juniors vs 9 de Octubre Statistics & Analysis

Deportivo Cuenca Juniors Deportivo Cuenca Juniors
Aug 28, 2026 - 00:00
1 1.28
1 1.32
xG Accuracy: 85%
9 de Octubre 9 de Octubre
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 9 de Octubre Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 25, 2026 · 01:38 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5394380

Closing Odds 3.29
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Deportivo Cuenca Juniors 1–1 9 de Octubre
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices 9 de Octubre (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 15.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Deportivo Cuenca Juniors (1X2) 34.2 34.8 -0.6
Draw (1X2) 29.7 37.4 -7.7
9 de Octubre (1X2) 36.1 27.8 +8.3
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 32.5 +15.7
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 67.5 -15.7
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 48.2% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 32.5%. The difference — about 15.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Deportivo Cuenca Juniors (1X2) 2.63 2.63 0.0
Draw (1X2) 2.45 2.45 0.0
9 de Octubre (1X2) 3.29 3.29 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.87 2.87 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.38 1.38 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Liga Pro Serie B
  • Fixture: Deportivo Cuenca Juniors vs 9 de Octubre
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-28 00:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Away 36.1%
  • xG (showing): Deportivo Cuenca Juniors 1.28 — 9 de Octubre 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 27.8% · Probability edge: +20.4 pts · Est. EV: +68.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

Get Premium Predictions for Deportivo Cuenca Juniors & 9 de Octubre!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Statistics
Liga Pro Serie B Liga Pro Serie B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Ind. Juniors 22 10 9 3 39
2 Atletico FC 22 9 11 2 38
3 9 de Octubre 22 9 10 3 37
4 Deportivo Cuenca Juniors 22 9 7 6 34
5 Cuniburo 22 8 7 7 31
6 San Antonio 22 7 10 5 31
7 Gualaceo SC 22 7 8 7 29
8 Santo Domingo 22 6 10 6 28
9 LDU Portoviejo 22 7 6 9 27
10 Cumbayá 22 5 11 6 26
11 22 de Julio 22 4 3 15 15
12 El Nacional 22 2 6 14 12
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Ind. Juniors 22 28 16 +12 39
2 Atletico FC 22 25 14 +11 38
3 Cuniburo 22 25 17 +8 31
4 San Antonio 22 24 21 +3 31
5 9 de Octubre 22 22 14 +8 37
6 Cumbayá 22 22 22 0 26
7 Deportivo Cuenca Juniors 22 20 23 -3 34
8 Gualaceo SC 22 19 16 +3 29
9 Santo Domingo 22 17 16 +1 28
10 LDU Portoviejo 22 17 22 -5 27
11 El Nacional 22 15 32 -17 12
12 22 de Julio 22 10 31 -21 15
Liga Pro Serie B Ecuador. Liga Pro Serie B Predictions