22 de Julio vs Santo Domingo Statistics & Analysis

22 de Julio

Aug 27, 2026 - 20:30

0 1.16

3 1.44

xG Accuracy: 47%

Santo Domingo

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Santo Domingo Santo Domingo ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 0-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 25, 2026 · 02:14 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5397416

Closing Odds 4.08

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Santo Domingo win · 22 de Julio 0–3 Santo Domingo

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 4.32 percentage points on Santo Domingo (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 10.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
22 de Julio (1X2)	28.8	22.4	+6.4
Draw (1X2)	29.3	31.1	-1.8
Santo Domingo (1X2)	41.9	46.5	-4.6
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	37.4	+10.8
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	62.6	-10.8

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 48.2% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 37.4%. The difference — about 10.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)	Implied Δ (pp)
22 de Julio (1X2)	4.52	4.08	+2.3
Draw (1X2)	3.12	2.94	+2.0
Santo Domingo (1X2)	1.79	1.97	-4.3
Over 2.5 goals	2.34	2.49	-2.6
Under 2.5 goals	1.56	1.49	+2.6

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Liga Pro Serie B
Fixture: 22 de Julio vs Santo Domingo
Kickoff: 2026-08-27 20:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 28.8% · Draw 29.3% · Away 41.9%
xG (showing): 22 de Julio 1.16 — Santo Domingo 1.44 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS Yes
Model: 54.0% · Implied: 43.0% · Probability edge: +11.0 pts · Est. EV: +18.8%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.0% · No 46.0%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga Pro Serie B — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Ind. Juniors	22	10	9	3	39
2	Atletico FC	22	9	11	2	38
3	9 de Octubre	22	9	10	3	37
4	Deportivo Cuenca Juniors	22	9	7	6	34
5	Cuniburo	22	8	7	7	31
6	San Antonio	22	7	10	5	31
7	Gualaceo SC	22	7	8	7	29
8	Santo Domingo	22	6	10	6	28
9	LDU Portoviejo	22	7	6	9	27
10	Cumbayá	22	5	11	6	26
11	22 de Julio	22	4	3	15	15
12	El Nacional	22	2	6	14	12

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Ind. Juniors	22	28	16	+12	39
2	Atletico FC	22	25	14	+11	38
3	Cuniburo	22	25	17	+8	31
4	San Antonio	22	24	21	+3	31
5	9 de Octubre	22	22	14	+8	37
6	Cumbayá	22	22	22	0	26
7	Deportivo Cuenca Juniors	22	20	23	-3	34
8	Gualaceo SC	22	19	16	+3	29
9	Santo Domingo	22	17	16	+1	28
10	LDU Portoviejo	22	17	22	-5	27
11	El Nacional	22	15	32	-17	12
12	22 de Julio	22	10	31	-21	15