Statistics / Football / Brazil. Amazonense - 2 / Peñarol vs RB do Norte

Peñarol vs RB do Norte Statistics & Analysis

Peñarol Peñarol
Aug 30, 2026 - 19:30
2 1.42
9 1.18
xG Accuracy: 10%
RB do Norte RB do Norte
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (11 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Peñarol RB do Norte ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 2-9 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 25, 2026 · 01:20 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5391888

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result RB do Norte win · Peñarol 2–9 RB do Norte
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Amazonense - 2
  • Fixture: Peñarol vs RB do Norte
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-30 20:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.0% · Draw 29.4% · Away 29.6%
  • xG (showing): Peñarol 1.42 — RB do Norte 1.18 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Amazonense - 2 Amazonense - 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 RB do Norte 6 5 1 0 16
2 Fast Clube-Am 6 4 2 0 14
3 Operário AM 6 4 0 2 12
4 Manicoré 6 3 1 2 10
5 Cliper 6 1 0 5 3
6 Unidos do Alvorada 6 1 0 5 3
7 Peñarol 6 1 0 5 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Operário AM 6 23 5 +18 12
2 RB do Norte 6 23 6 +17 16
3 Fast Clube-Am 6 16 4 +12 14
4 Manicoré 6 14 11 +3 10
5 Unidos do Alvorada 6 12 27 -15 3
6 Cliper 6 10 23 -13 3
7 Peñarol 6 6 28 -22 3