Statistics / Football / Colombia. Liga Femenina / Orsomarso W vs América de Cali W

Orsomarso W vs América de Cali W Statistics & Analysis

Orsomarso W Orsomarso W
Aug 29, 2026 - 20:00
0 1.40
2 1.20
xG Accuracy: 55%
América de Cali W América de Cali W
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Orsomarso W América de Cali W ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 24, 2026 · 01:24 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5291177

Closing Odds 3.59
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result América de Cali W win · Orsomarso W 0–2 América de Cali W
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Orsomarso W (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Orsomarso W (1X2) by about 15.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Orsomarso W (1X2) 40.0 24.8 +15.2
Draw (1X2) 29.5 29.9 -0.4
América de Cali W (1X2) 30.6 45.4 -14.8
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 41.3 +6.9
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 58.7 -6.9
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 40.0% on Orsomarso W (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 24.8%. The difference — about 15.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE5) Implied Δ (pp)
Orsomarso W (1X2) 3.59 3.59 0.0
Draw (1X2) 2.98 2.98 0.0
América de Cali W (1X2) 1.96 1.96 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.23 2.23 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.57 1.57 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Liga Femenina
  • Fixture: Orsomarso W vs América de Cali W
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-29 20:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 40.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 30.6%
  • xG (showing): Orsomarso W 1.4 — América de Cali W 1.2 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.3% · Implied: 45.2% · Probability edge: +9.1 pts · Est. EV: +20.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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