Statistics / Football / Peru. Liga Women / Killas W vs Defensores W

Killas W vs Defensores W Statistics & Analysis

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Killas W
Sep 11, 2026 - 20:15
3 1.32
1 1.28
xG Accuracy: 58%
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Defensores W
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Killas W Killas W ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 05, 2026 · 02:18 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7044244

Closing Odds 2.05
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Killas W win · Killas W 3–1 Defensores W
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 2.12 percentage points on Defensores W (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 9.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Killas W (1X2) 36.1 44.1 -8.0
Draw (1X2) 29.7 25.8 +3.9
Defensores W (1X2) 34.2 30.1 +4.1
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 58.1 -9.9
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 41.9 +9.9
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 41.9%. The difference — about 9.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Bet365

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Killas W (1X2) 2.15 2.05 +2.1
Draw (1X2) 3.5 3.5 +0.0
Defensores W (1X2) 2.8 3.0 -2.1
Over 2.5 goals 1.62 1.62 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.25 2.25 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Liga Women
  • Fixture: Killas W vs Defensores W
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-11 20:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Killas W 1.32 — Defensores W 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 42.3% · Probability edge: +9.5 pts · Est. EV: +16.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga Women Liga Women — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 U. de Deportes W 10 9 1 0 28
2 Atl. Andahuaylas W 10 8 1 1 25
3 Sporting Cristal W 10 7 0 3 21
4 Alianza Lima W 10 6 2 2 20
5 Yanapuma W 10 5 1 4 16
6 FBC Melgar W 10 4 2 4 14
7 Flamengo FBC W 10 3 2 5 11
8 Defensores W 10 2 1 7 7
9 UNSAAC W 10 1 3 6 6
10 Killas W 10 1 2 7 5
11 Carlos Mannucci W 10 1 1 8 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 U. de Deportes W 10 55 4 +51 28
2 Sporting Cristal W 10 30 9 +21 21
3 Alianza Lima W 10 26 7 +19 20
4 Flamengo FBC W 10 16 21 -5 11
5 FBC Melgar W 10 15 14 +1 14
6 Yanapuma W 10 15 21 -6 16
7 Atl. Andahuaylas W 10 14 8 +6 25
8 Killas W 10 14 26 -12 5
9 Defensores W 10 11 29 -18 7
10 UNSAAC W 10 7 25 -18 6
11 Carlos Mannucci W 10 4 43 -39 4