Atl. Andahuaylas W vs FBC Melgar W Statistics & Analysis

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Atl. Andahuaylas W

Sep 11, 2026 - 18:00

1 1.32

5 1.28

xG Accuracy: 33%

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FBC Melgar W

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Atl. Andahuaylas W FBC Melgar W ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-5 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 05, 2026 · 02:03 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7039382

Closing Odds 2.05

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result FBC Melgar W win · Atl. Andahuaylas W 1–5 FBC Melgar W

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), FBC Melgar W (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on FBC Melgar W (1X2) by about 5.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Atl. Andahuaylas W (1X2)	36.1	43.6	-7.5
Draw (1X2)	29.7	27.5	+2.1
FBC Melgar W (1X2)	34.2	28.9	+5.4
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	51.3	-3.1
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	48.7	+3.1

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 34.2% on FBC Melgar W (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 28.9%. The difference — about 5.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Bet365

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Atl. Andahuaylas W (1X2)	2.05	2.05
Draw (1X2)	3.25	3.25
FBC Melgar W (1X2)	3.1	3.1
Over 2.5 goals	1.85	1.85
Under 2.5 goals	1.95	1.95

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Liga Women
Fixture: Atl. Andahuaylas W vs FBC Melgar W
Kickoff: 2026-09-11 18:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
xG (showing): Atl. Andahuaylas W 1.32 — FBC Melgar W 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.0%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga Women — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	U. de Deportes W	10	9	1	0	28
2	Atl. Andahuaylas W	10	8	1	1	25
3	Sporting Cristal W	10	7	0	3	21
4	Alianza Lima W	10	6	2	2	20
5	Yanapuma W	10	5	1	4	16
6	FBC Melgar W	10	4	2	4	14
7	Flamengo FBC W	10	3	2	5	11
8	Defensores W	10	2	1	7	7
9	UNSAAC W	10	1	3	6	6
10	Killas W	10	1	2	7	5
11	Carlos Mannucci W	10	1	1	8	4

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	U. de Deportes W	10	55	4	+51	28
2	Sporting Cristal W	10	30	9	+21	21
3	Alianza Lima W	10	26	7	+19	20
4	Flamengo FBC W	10	16	21	-5	11
5	FBC Melgar W	10	15	14	+1	14
6	Yanapuma W	10	15	21	-6	16
7	Atl. Andahuaylas W	10	14	8	+6	25
8	Killas W	10	14	26	-12	5
9	Defensores W	10	11	29	-18	7
10	UNSAAC W	10	7	25	-18	6
11	Carlos Mannucci W	10	4	43	-39	4