Statistics / Football / Paraguay. Division Profesional - Clausura / Olimpia vs Nacional Asuncion

Olimpia vs Nacional Asuncion Statistics & Analysis

Olimpia Olimpia
Oct 06, 2026 - 22:15
1 1.26
1 1.34
xG Accuracy: 85%
Nacional Asuncion Nacional Asuncion
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Nacional Asuncion Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 01, 2026 · 02:11 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-12189588

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Olimpia 1–1 Nacional Asuncion
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Division Profesional - Clausura
  • Fixture: Olimpia vs Nacional Asuncion
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-07 20:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.0%
  • xG (showing): Olimpia 1.26 — Nacional Asuncion 1.34 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.5% · Implied: 48.1% · Probability edge: +6.4 pts · Est. EV: +9.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 10, 2026 (UTC)

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Division Profesional - Clausura Division Profesional - Clausura — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Olimpia 12 8 1 3 25
2 Libertad Asuncion 12 7 2 3 23
3 Nacional Asuncion 12 6 4 2 22
4 2 de Mayo 12 6 4 2 22
5 Club Guarani 12 5 5 2 20
6 Sportivo Trinidense 12 6 2 4 20
7 Sportivo Ameliano 12 4 6 2 18
8 Cerro Porteno 12 5 2 5 17
9 Sportivo Luqueno 12 4 1 7 13
10 Rubio NU 12 2 3 7 9
11 Deportivo Recoleta 12 2 2 8 8
12 Club Sp. San Lorenzo 12 0 2 10 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Olimpia 12 21 9 +12 25
2 Sportivo Trinidense 12 20 11 +9 20
3 Nacional Asuncion 12 19 7 +12 22
4 Libertad Asuncion 12 19 13 +6 23
5 Cerro Porteno 12 15 12 +3 17
6 2 de Mayo 12 14 13 +1 22
7 Sportivo Ameliano 12 14 13 +1 18
8 Club Guarani 12 13 9 +4 20
9 Rubio NU 12 13 23 -10 9
10 Deportivo Recoleta 12 13 24 -11 8
11 Sportivo Luqueno 12 12 21 -9 13
12 Club Sp. San Lorenzo 12 3 21 -18 2
Division Profesional - Clausura Paraguay. Division Profesional - Clausura Predictions