Nacional Asuncion vs 2 de Mayo Statistics & Analysis

Nacional Asuncion

Sep 18, 2026 - 21:30

3 1.28

0 1.02

xG Accuracy: 47%

2 de Mayo

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Nacional Asuncion Nacional Asuncion ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 0-0, 2-1 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 12, 2026 · 02:46 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8232824

Closing Odds 1.67

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Nacional Asuncion win · Nacional Asuncion 3–0 2 de Mayo

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), 2 de Mayo (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on 2 de Mayo (1X2) by about 10.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Nacional Asuncion (1X2)	40.7	56.8	-16.1
Draw (1X2)	31.5	26.0	+5.5
2 de Mayo (1X2)	27.9	17.2	+10.7
Over 2.5 goals	40.4	39.1	+1.3
Under 2.5 goals	59.6	60.9	-1.3

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 27.9% on 2 de Mayo (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 17.2%. The difference — about 10.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Nacional Asuncion (1X2)	1.67	1.67
Draw (1X2)	3.65	3.65
2 de Mayo (1X2)	5.51	5.51
Over 2.5 goals	2.43	2.43
Under 2.5 goals	1.56	1.56

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Division Profesional - Clausura
Fixture: Nacional Asuncion vs 2 de Mayo
Kickoff: 2026-09-18 21:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 40.7% · Draw 31.5% · Away 27.9%
xG (showing): Nacional Asuncion 1.28 — 2 de Mayo 1.02 (total xG ≈ 2.3)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 59.6% · Over 2.5 40.4%); BTTS Yes (Yes 47.9% · No 52.1%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 47.9% · No 52.1%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (13.1%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Division Profesional - Clausura — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Libertad Asuncion	11	7	2	2	23
2	Nacional Asuncion	12	6	4	2	22
3	2 de Mayo	12	6	4	2	22
4	Olimpia	11	7	1	3	22
5	Club Guarani	12	5	5	2	20
6	Sportivo Ameliano	12	4	6	2	18
7	Sportivo Trinidense	11	5	2	4	17
8	Cerro Porteno	11	5	2	4	17
9	Sportivo Luqueno	12	4	1	7	13
10	Rubio NU	12	2	3	7	9
11	Deportivo Recoleta	11	2	1	8	7
12	Club Sp. San Lorenzo	11	0	1	10	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Olimpia	11	20	9	+11	22
2	Nacional Asuncion	12	19	7	+12	22
3	Libertad Asuncion	11	19	12	+7	23
4	Sportivo Trinidense	11	18	10	+8	17
5	Cerro Porteno	11	14	10	+4	17
6	2 de Mayo	12	14	13	+1	22
7	Sportivo Ameliano	12	14	13	+1	18
8	Club Guarani	12	13	9	+4	20
9	Rubio NU	12	13	23	-10	9
10	Deportivo Recoleta	11	13	24	-11	7
11	Sportivo Luqueno	12	12	21	-9	13
12	Club Sp. San Lorenzo	11	3	21	-18	1