Statistics / Football / Paraguay. Division Profesional - Clausura / Deportivo Recoleta vs Sportivo Trinidense

Deportivo Recoleta vs Sportivo Trinidense Statistics & Analysis

Deportivo Recoleta Deportivo Recoleta
Sep 12, 2026 - 21:30
1 1.01
3 1.16
xG Accuracy: 60%
Sportivo Trinidense Sportivo Trinidense
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Sportivo Trinidense Sportivo Trinidense ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 0-0, 1-2 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 10, 2026 · 01:28 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7842962

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Sportivo Trinidense win · Deportivo Recoleta 1–3 Sportivo Trinidense
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Division Profesional - Clausura
  • Fixture: Deportivo Recoleta vs Sportivo Trinidense
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-12 21:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 29.8% · Draw 32.8% · Away 37.4%
  • xG (showing): Deportivo Recoleta 1.01 — Sportivo Trinidense 1.16 (total xG ≈ 2.17)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 63.1% · Implied: 49.5% · Probability edge: +13.6 pts · Est. EV: +21.8%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 45.4% · No 54.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (13.4%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Division Profesional - Clausura Division Profesional - Clausura — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Libertad Asuncion 11 7 2 2 23
2 Nacional Asuncion 12 6 4 2 22
3 2 de Mayo 12 6 4 2 22
4 Olimpia 11 7 1 3 22
5 Club Guarani 12 5 5 2 20
6 Sportivo Ameliano 12 4 6 2 18
7 Sportivo Trinidense 11 5 2 4 17
8 Cerro Porteno 11 5 2 4 17
9 Sportivo Luqueno 12 4 1 7 13
10 Rubio NU 12 2 3 7 9
11 Deportivo Recoleta 11 2 1 8 7
12 Club Sp. San Lorenzo 11 0 1 10 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Olimpia 11 20 9 +11 22
2 Nacional Asuncion 12 19 7 +12 22
3 Libertad Asuncion 11 19 12 +7 23
4 Sportivo Trinidense 11 18 10 +8 17
5 Cerro Porteno 11 14 10 +4 17
6 2 de Mayo 12 14 13 +1 22
7 Sportivo Ameliano 12 14 13 +1 18
8 Club Guarani 12 13 9 +4 20
9 Rubio NU 12 13 23 -10 9
10 Deportivo Recoleta 11 13 24 -11 7
11 Sportivo Luqueno 12 12 21 -9 13
12 Club Sp. San Lorenzo 11 3 21 -18 1
Division Profesional - Clausura Paraguay. Division Profesional - Clausura Predictions